Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-08-04 09:51Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint The terminal demand for hot-rolled coils is relatively resilient, and the market is shifting from sentiment-driven to reality-checking. The market may enter a range-bound consolidation. Technically, the 1-hour MACD indicator of the HC2510 contract shows a potential golden cross of DIFF and DEA at low levels. It is recommended to engage in short-term trading and pay attention to rhythm and risk control [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - HC main contract closing price: 3,417 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan [2]. - HC main contract open interest: 1,437,071 lots, down 17,689 lots [2]. - HC contract top 20 net open interest: -80,361 lots, up 28,605 lots [2]. - HC10 - 1 contract spread: 2 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan [2]. - HC SHFE daily warehouse receipts: 55,998 tons, down 1,176 tons [2]. - HC2510 - RB2510 contract spread: 213 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Hangzhou 4.75 hot-rolled coil: 3,470 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2]. - Guangzhou 4.75 hot-rolled coil: 3,430 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Wuhan 4.75 hot-rolled coil: 3,470 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2]. - Tianjin 4.75 hot-rolled coil: 3,360 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan [2]. - HC main contract basis: 53 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan [2]. - Hangzhou hot-rolled coil - rebar spread: 100 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Qingdao Port 61.5% PB iron ore fines: 768 yuan/wet ton, down 2 yuan [2]. - Hebei quasi-primary metallurgical coke: 1,365 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Tangshan 6 - 8mm scrap steel: 2,270 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Hebei Q235 billet: 3,050 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2]. - 45-port iron ore inventory: 136.579 million tons, down 1.3248 million tons [2]. - Sample coking plant coke inventory: 462,800 tons, down 35,200 tons [2]. - Sample steel mill coke inventory: 6.2678 million tons, down 132,200 tons [2]. - Hebei billet inventory: 1.1102 million tons, up 41,000 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - 247 steel mill blast furnace operating rate: 83.48%, unchanged [2]. - 247 steel mill blast furnace capacity utilization rate: 90.22%, down 0.56% [2]. - Sample steel mill hot-rolled coil output: 3.2279 million tons, up 53,000 tons [2]. - Sample steel mill hot-rolled coil capacity utilization rate: 82.46%, up 1.35% [2]. - Sample steel mill hot-rolled coil factory inventory: 793,000 tons, up 13,000 tons [2]. - 33-city hot-rolled coil social inventory: 2.6865 million tons, up 14,900 tons [2]. - Domestic crude steel output: 8.318 million tons, down 336,000 tons [2]. - Steel net exports: 921,000 tons, down 89,000 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - Automobile production: 2.7941 million units, up 145,600 units [2]. - Automobile sales: 2.9045 million units, up 218,100 units [2]. - Air conditioner production: 28.3831 million units, down 1.0969 million units [2]. - Household refrigerator production: 9.0474 million units, up 537,400 units [2]. - Household washing machine production: 9.5079 million units, up 95,900 units [2]. 3.6 Industry News - US non-farm payrolls in July increased by 73,000, lower than the expected 104,000. After the data release, US President Trump criticized Powell again and called for a rate cut [2]. - In July, the performance of new energy vehicle startups was divided. Leapmotor's delivery volume exceeded 50,000 for the first time, reaching 50,129 units, a year-on-year increase of 126.9%. XPeng Motors also set a new delivery record, delivering 36,717 new cars in July, a year-on-year increase of 229.45%. Li Auto's delivery volume declined significantly, and NIO continued to hover around 20,000 units [2]. - On Monday, the HC2510 contract first declined and then rebounded. Macroscopically, US President Trump signed an executive order to impose reciprocal tariffs ranging from 10% to 41% on countries or regions that have not reached an agreement with the US (including Canada, Brazil, etc.), and all tariffs will take effect on August 7, 2025. In terms of supply and demand, the weekly output of hot-rolled coils stopped falling and rebounded, with a capacity utilization rate of 82.46%, which is at a relatively high level; the apparent demand rebounded, and the inventory increased slightly [2].