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瑞达期货纯苯产业日报-20250804

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - BZ2603 experienced a decline and then a rebound, closing at 6240 yuan/ton. The domestic pure benzene supply is expected to increase this week due to the impact of new production - capacity utilization and restart of shutdown devices. The insufficient number of imported cargo arrivals may partially offset the increase in domestic pure benzene. The downstream industries of pure benzene have both load - reduction and load - increase situations, with short - term demand expected to fluctuate slightly. In the medium - to - long - term, the new production capacity of downstream devices from July to August is higher than that of pure benzene, which gives an improving trend to the supply - demand of pure benzene. The international oil price is expected to be strong this week, and BZ2603 is expected to show a volatile trend in the short term, with attention paid to the support around 6100 and the pressure around 6440 [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The main closing price of pure benzene is 6240 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the main settlement price is 6231 yuan/ton, down 53 yuan; the main trading volume is 7340 hands, up 1106 hands; the main open interest is 12859 hands, down 219 hands [2] Spot Market - The mainstream prices of pure benzene in the East China, North China, South China, and Northeast regions are 6090 yuan/ton, 6060 yuan/ton, 6050 yuan/ton, and 6055 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of 20 yuan/ton, - 30 yuan/ton, 0 yuan/ton, and - 10 yuan/ton. The mainstream prices of hydrogenated benzene in Jiangsu and Shanxi regions are 6175 yuan/ton and 5900 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of - 50 yuan/ton and 0 yuan/ton. The spot prices of pure benzene in South Korea (FOB) and China (CFR) are 744 dollars/ton and 756.5 dollars/ton respectively, down 5 dollars/ton and 7 dollars/ton [2] Upstream Situation - The spot price of Brent DTD crude oil is 71.52 dollars/barrel, down 0.53 dollars/barrel; the CFR intermediate price of naphtha in the Japanese region is 603.88 dollars/ton, down 7.12 dollars/ton [2] Industry Situation - The capacity utilization rate of pure benzene is 78.14%, up 0.13%; the weekly output is 43.57 tons, up 1.09 tons; the port inventory is 17 tons, down 0.1 tons; the production cost is 5327.8 yuan/ton, down 118.2 yuan/ton; the production profit is 737 yuan/ton, up 76 yuan/ton [2] Downstream Situation - The开工率 of styrene is 78.92%, up 0.08%; the capacity utilization rate of caprolactam is 95.72%, up 6.41%; the capacity utilization rate of phenol is 78.54%, down 0.46%; the capacity utilization rate of aniline is 69.24%, down 0.1%; the capacity utilization rate of adipic acid is 64.3%, up 2% [2] Industry News - From July 25th to 31st, the weekly profit of PetroChina's benzene was 643 yuan/ton, up 34 yuan/ton compared with the previous week [2] - As of August 4th, the pure benzene port inventory in Jiangsu was 16.3 tons, down 4.12% compared with the previous week [2] Viewpoint Summary - BZ2603 fell and then rebounded, closing at 6240 yuan/ton. On the supply side, the impact of restarted domestic petroleum benzene and hydrogenated benzene devices last week was higher than that of newly shut - down devices. The operating rate of petroleum benzene increased by 1.97% to 78.57%, and that of hydrogenated benzene increased by 2.55% to 62.95%. On the demand side, the operating rates of pure benzene downstream industries changed differently last week. The operating rates of styrene, caprolactam, aniline, and adipic acid changed little, while the operating rate of phenol decreased by 5% to 72.9%. In terms of inventory, the pure benzene inventory in East China ports decreased by 4.12% to 16.3 tons this week. Due to the new production - capacity utilization of petroleum benzene and hydrogenated benzene and the restart of shut - down devices, the domestic pure benzene supply is expected to increase this week. The insufficient number of imported cargo arrivals may partially offset the increase in domestic pure benzene. The downstream industries of pure benzene have both load - reduction and load - increase situations, with short - term demand expected to fluctuate slightly. From July to August, the new production capacity of downstream devices is higher than that of pure benzene, giving an improving trend to the supply - demand of pure benzene in the medium - to - long - term. In terms of cost, the demand in the traditional peak season in the US continues, the tariff deadlock eases, and the US sanctions on Russia may cause new supply risks. The international oil price is expected to be strong this week. BZ2603 is expected to show a volatile trend in the short term, with attention paid to the support around 6100 and the pressure around 6440 [2]