瑞达期货PVC产业日报-20250804

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - V2509 fell 1.17% to close at 4,981 yuan/ton. The supply side saw some PVC device overhauls and restarts last week, with the capacity utilization rate increasing by 0.05% to 76.84%. The demand side had low - level and narrow - range improvement in the start - up of the main downstream pipes, a continued decline in the start - up of profiles, and other varieties' start - up rates remaining at a low level. The PVC social inventory increased by 5.67% to 72.21 million tons last week. After the new capacity is put into operation in August, the supply is likely to rise. The impact of restarted devices will expand this week, and the capacity utilization rate is expected to increase month - on - month. Domestic downstream demand is in the off - season, with only rigid demand for purchases. The delay of the Indian BIS certification and anti - dumping policy has not effectively promoted overseas demand due to the rainy season. The calcium carbide industry's losses are dragging down the start - up, and its price is expected to be supported; the ethylene market's supply - demand changes are limited, and its price is expected to remain stable. Currently, the futures price has a slight premium over the spot price. V2509 is expected to fluctuate weakly, and attention should be paid to the support around 4,900 yuan/ton technically [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of PVC futures was 4,981 yuan/ton, a decrease of 34 yuan; the trading volume was 921,641 lots, a decrease of 29,572 lots; the open interest was 758,248 lots, a decrease of 8,604 lots. The buy order volume of the top 20 futures positions was 804,697 lots, an increase of 42,366 lots; the sell order volume was 847,434 lots, an increase of 51,705 lots; the net buy order volume was - 42,737 lots, a decrease of 9,339 lots [3] Spot Market - In the East China region, the price of PVC ethylene - based was 5,140 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the price of PVC calcium - carbide - based was 4,929.23 yuan/ton, a decrease of 28.08 yuan. In the South China region, the price of PVC ethylene - based was 5,105 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the price of PVC calcium - carbide - based was 4,961.25 yuan/ton, a decrease of 21.88 yuan. The CIF price of PVC in China was 700 US dollars/ton (unchanged), in Southeast Asia was 680 US dollars/ton (unchanged), and the FOB price in Northwest Europe was 750 US dollars/ton (unchanged). The basis of PVC was - 111 yuan/ton, a decrease of 16 yuan [3] Upstream Situation - The mainstream average price of calcium carbide in Central China was 2,650 yuan/ton (unchanged), in North China was 2,590 yuan/ton, an increase of 16.67 yuan, and in Northwest China was 2,338 yuan/ton, an increase of 15 yuan. The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Inner Mongolia was - 550 yuan/ton. The VCM CFR Far East intermediate price was 521 US dollars/ton, an increase of 18 US dollars; the VCM CFR Southeast Asia intermediate price was 548 US dollars/ton (unchanged). The EDC CFR Far East intermediate price was 211 US dollars/ton (unchanged), and the EDC CFR Southeast Asia intermediate price was 219 US dollars/ton (unchanged) [3] Industry Situation - The weekly start - up rate of PVC was 76.84%, an increase of 0.05 percentage points; the start - up rate of PVC calcium - carbide - based was 76.03%, a decrease of 3.22 percentage points; the start - up rate of PVC ethylene - based was 78.99%, an increase of 8.72 percentage points. The total social inventory of PVC was 448,000 tons, an increase of 21,000 tons; the total social inventory in the East China region was 394,800 tons, an increase of 16,600 tons; the total social inventory in the South China region was 53,200 tons, an increase of 4,400 tons [3] Downstream Situation - The national real estate climate index was 93.6, a decrease of 0.12. The cumulative value of new housing construction area was 303.6432 million square meters, an increase of 71.8071 million square meters. The cumulative value of real estate construction area was 6.3332143 billion square meters, an increase of 83.0189 million square meters. The cumulative value of real estate development investment was 244.755 billion yuan, an increase of 53.2069 billion yuan [3] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC was 29.79%, an increase of 0.18 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility was 22.67%, an increase of 0.03 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 18.05%, a decrease of 1.32 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 18.06%, a decrease of 1.21 percentage points [3] Industry News - On August 4th, the cash settlement price of PVCSG5 in Changzhou warehouses decreased by 50 - 80 yuan/ton compared to last Friday, with the price ranging from 4,840 - 4,900 yuan/ton. From July 26th to August 1st, China's PVC capacity utilization rate was 76.84%, a month - on - month increase of 0.05%. As of July 31st, the PVC social inventory increased by 5.67% month - on - month to 72.21 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 24.10% [3]