固收&宏观周报：美国非农大幅下修与美联储降息预期提升-20250804

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - A - shares are currently experiencing a normal pull - back during an upward trend and still offer good investment opportunities in sectors like rare earths, artificial intelligence, and innovative drugs. Bond market yields are expected to remain in a narrow low - level range. Gold may continue to rise under Trump's actions and has short - term long - making value [10] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Stock Market - In the past week (20250728 - 20250803), US stocks declined, with the Nasdaq, S&P 500, and Dow Jones Industrial Average changing by - 2.17%, - 2.36%, and - 2.92% respectively. The Nasdaq China Technology Index dropped 3.20%, and the Hang Seng Index fell 3.47% [1] - Most A - share sectors declined. The Wind All - A Index dropped 1.09%. Among different indices, the CSI A100, CSI 300, CSI 500, CSI 1000, CSI 2000, and Wind Micro - cap stocks changed by - 2.15%, - 1.75%, - 1.37%, - 0.54%, - 0.01%, and 1.09% respectively. From a sector style perspective, both blue - chip and growth stocks in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets declined, and the North - bound 50 Index dropped 2.70% [1] - Most industries declined, with communication and innovative drugs leading the gains. Among 30 CITIC industries, 24 declined and 6 rose. The leading industries were communication and pharmaceuticals, with weekly gains of over 2% [1] Bond Market - In the past week, the price of interest - rate bonds rose, and the yield curve shifted downward. The 10 - year Treasury bond futures main contract rose 0.24% compared to July 25, 2025. The yield of the 10 - year active Treasury bond decreased by 2.65 BP to 1.7059% [1] - The cost of funds decreased. As of August 1, 2025, R007 was 1.4864%, down 20.73 BP from July 25, 2025, and DR007 was 1.4242%, down 22.81 BP. The central bank conducted a net injection of 69 billion yuan in open - market operations last week. In July, the net injection in the repurchase operation was 200 billion yuan, and the Treasury bond trading operation remained at zero [2] - The bond market leverage level declined. The 5 - day average of inter - bank pledged repurchase volume decreased from 7.70 trillion yuan on July 25, 2025, to 6.72 trillion yuan on August 1, 2025 [3] - US Treasury yields declined, and the curve shifted downward. As of August 1, 2025, the 10 - year US Treasury yield decreased by 17 BP to 4.23% compared to July 25, 2025 [4] - The policy of restoring VAT on new - issued Treasury bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds from August 8, 2025, while keeping existing bonds tax - free until maturity, may lead to a divergence between existing and new bonds. Existing bonds may be favored, and new bonds may require higher yield compensation [6] Foreign Exchange and Commodity Markets - The US dollar appreciated. The US dollar index rose 1.04%. The exchange rates of the US dollar against the euro, pound, and yen changed by 1.33%, 1.18%, and - 0.18% respectively. The exchange rates of the US dollar against the offshore and onshore RMB rose by 0.35% and 0.60% respectively [5] - The price of gold in the domestic market declined. The Shanghai gold spot price dropped 0.89% to 767.29 yuan/gram, and the futures price fell 0.94% to 767.44 yuan/gram. The price of foreign gold had mixed performance [5] Macroeconomic Data - The US non - farm payrolls in July were lower than expected, with 73,000 new jobs, significantly lower than the expected 106,000. The new non - farm payrolls in May and June were revised downwards. The market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in September increased, with the probability rising from 38.4% to 77.7% [7][8] - Trump's order to fire the director of the Bureau of Labor Statistics and the early resignation of a Fed governor have raised concerns about the reliability of employment data and the Fed's independence [9]