固定收益市场周观察：北交所打新，适合_固收+”的低回撤增厚策略

Group 1: Market Overview - The fixed income market is experiencing a decline in investment returns, prompting investors to seek "fixed income plus" products to enhance yields while managing withdrawal risks[14]. - The recent policy to restore value-added tax (VAT) on bond interest income is expected to reduce returns by 5-10 basis points (bp) for bond investors[14][15]. - The bond market is currently seeing a recovery in sentiment, with significant fluctuations in interest rates and a high issuance volume of government bonds[40][44]. Group 2: Investment Strategies - The North Exchange's online IPOs offer low-cost, high-yield opportunities, making them suitable for "fixed income plus" strategies[16]. - Historical data shows that the average first-day return for new stocks listed on the North Exchange in 2024 was 245%, with no instances of price drops below the issue price[16]. - A strategy involving the maximum subscription amount (5% of the initial issuance) yields an average return of 0.17%, while optimizing for minimum investment can lower returns to 0.12%[21][27]. Group 3: Recommendations - Investors are advised to focus on "fixed income plus" opportunities due to the low withdrawal risk associated with the North Exchange's IPO strategy[35]. - The optimal investment strategy involves adjusting the investment amount to achieve a balance between success probability and return efficiency, with a target return of 0.20% when investing 2.5 times the minimum subscription amount[30][31].