【债券深度报告】债券月度策略思考：8月，下半年债市三步走的第二段起点-20250804

Group 1: Economic Fundamentals - In August, the focus will be on the verification of policy effects, with new policy financial tools expected to boost credit and investment recovery[1] - The "anti-involution" narrative is expected to lead to moderate price recovery, although short-term trends remain uncertain[1] - External factors indicate a potential 90-day extension of the exemption period, with reduced uncertainty in tariff policies, but the downward trend in exports is expected to continue[1] Group 2: Liquidity and Market Dynamics - Historical data shows that August is a month with potential liquidity fluctuations, but risks are limited under current monetary policy targets[2] - The liquidity gap in August is projected to be around 1.8 trillion, with a central tendency likely to remain around 1.5%[2] - The supply of government bonds is expected to accelerate, with net financing projected between 1.5 to 1.6 trillion[3] Group 3: Institutional Behavior - Demand for bonds may weaken due to increased supply and limited institutional buying power, with a supply-demand index for August expected to be at 59%, significantly lower than the second quarter average[3] - The market is likely to experience structural pressure due to the imbalance between supply and demand[3] Group 4: Market Strategy - The bond market is entering the second phase of a "three-step" strategy, with the 10-year government bond expected to fluctuate between 1.65% and 1.75%[3] - Investors are advised to be flexible and consider timely profit-taking in response to key market events and policy announcements[3]