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Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report Urea futures opened low and moved high with an upward trend today. Spot prices have been declining since the weekend, and upstream factories' price - cuts to attract orders were effective with increased orders. In terms of fundamentals, Shanxi Jinmei Tianyuan started a long - cycle shutdown, and the production is expected to decline slightly. After the weekend price - cuts, the trading became smooth, and the futures turning positive stimulated downstream purchases. Agricultural corn top - dressing demand has ended, and industrial purchases are the main downstream demand. The operating rate of compound fertilizer factories continues to rise and is expected to keep rising this month, increasing the demand for urea. Currently, domestic demand is insufficient, but there are expectations of improved industrial demand. The inventory de - stocking has reached an inflection point and started to accumulate last week. The market is mainly in a volatile state, and future market trends depend on the purchasing progress of compound fertilizer factories and export conditions. The 09 contract is approaching delivery with limited upward and downward space [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Strategy Analysis - Urea futures opened low and moved high today. Spot prices dropped since the weekend, and upstream factories' price - cuts to attract orders were successful with more orders received. Shanxi Jinmei Tianyuan's long - cycle shutdown may lead to a slight production decline. After the weekend price - cuts, trading became smooth, and the futures' rise spurred downstream purchases. Agricultural corn top - dressing is over, and industrial purchases are dominant. The compound fertilizer factories' operating rate is rising and expected to continue, increasing urea demand. There are expectations of improved industrial demand despite current insufficient domestic demand. Inventory started to accumulate last week, and the market is volatile. The 09 contract has limited space as it nears delivery [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions Futures - The main urea 2509 contract opened at 1714 yuan/ton, closed at 1733 yuan/ton with a 1.11% increase, and the trading volume was 142200 lots (- 489 lots). Among the top twenty main positions, long positions decreased by 945 lots and short positions increased by 1061 lots. For example, Hongyuan Futures' net long positions increased by 1002 lots, while Guangfa Futures' decreased by 720 lots; CITIC Futures' net short positions increased by 2570 lots, and Dongzheng Futures' decreased by 596 lots [2] Spot - Spot prices have been falling since the weekend. Upstream factories' price - cuts to attract orders were effective with more orders. The ex - factory price of small - granular urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei ranges from 1700 - 1750 yuan/ton [5] Fundamental Tracking Basis - Today, the mainstream spot market quotes were stable but weak, and the futures closing price slightly declined. Based on Shandong region, the basis weakened compared to the previous trading day, with the September contract basis at 27 yuan/ton (- 34 yuan/ton) [9] Supply Data - On August 4, 2025, the national daily urea production was 187,600 tons, a decrease of 49,000 tons from yesterday, and the operating rate was 79.87% [12] Warehouse Receipts - On August 4, 2025, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 3373, unchanged from the previous trading day [3]