Report Overview - Report Title: Steel Futures Weekly Report (August 04, 2025) [1] - Report Author: Cong Yanfei [2] - Report Publisher: Ningzheng Futures Investment Consulting Center [2] 1. Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, steel prices fluctuated and declined, with the average national rebar price dropping by 75 yuan/ton week-on-week. The macro positive expectations faded, and demand continued to decline seasonally. The market sentiment shifted from strong expectations to weak reality. However, raw materials still provided some bottom support, and the market sentiment was lukewarm. [2][4] - Next week, high temperatures, heavy rainfall, and typhoon weather will continue to suppress construction progress, and the actual terminal demand is expected to weaken further. However, the special bonds in July did not meet the plan, and infrastructure investment may have some support in August. [2][4] - The steel market fundamentals show a pattern of weak supply and demand. It is currently the off - season for consumption, inventory is starting to accumulate, and market sales pressure has increased. [9] - In the short term, steel prices are expected to fluctuate weakly. The steel fundamentals show some contradictions but still have cost support. [26] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 This Week's Market Review - Steel prices fluctuated and declined this week, with the average national rebar price dropping by 75 yuan/ton week - on - week. The macro positive expectations faded, and demand continued to decline seasonally. The market sentiment shifted from strong expectations to weak reality. Raw materials provided some bottom support, and the market sentiment was lukewarm. [2][4] - Next week, adverse weather will suppress construction progress, and terminal demand is expected to weaken further. However, infrastructure investment may have some support in August due to the unfulfilled special bond plan in July. [2][4] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - The central government emphasizes continuous and timely efforts in macro - policies in the second half of the year, focusing on expanding domestic demand, boosting consumption, and promoting economic circulation. [6] - The 20th Fourth Plenary Session will be held in October to study the suggestions for formulating the 15th Five - Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development. [6] - China and the US held a new round of economic and trade talks, and both sides agreed to extend the suspension of some reciprocal tariffs and counter - measures for 90 days. [6] - From January to June 2025, the total profit of industrial enterprises above the national scale was 3436.5 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 1.8%. The profit of the ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry increased 13.7 times year - on - year. [6] - In July 2025, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, a seasonal decline of 0.4 percentage points month - on - month. The non - manufacturing and composite PMI output indices were 50.1% and 50.2% respectively, down 0.4 and 0.5 percentage points from the previous month. [7] - In June 2025, China's steel exports were 967800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 8.5%, the first month - on - month decline since March. The export average price was 687.1 US dollars/ton, a slight month - on - month decrease of 1.6%. From January to June, the cumulative steel exports were 58.147 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.9%, and the export average price was 699.3 US dollars/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 10.2%. In June, China's steel imports were 47000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.4%, and the import average price was 1712.5 US dollars/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 2.1%. From January to June, the cumulative steel imports were 3.023 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 16.4%, and the import average price was 1686.4 US dollars/ton, a year - on - year increase of 2.2%. [7] 3.3 Fundamental Analysis - According to Mysteel's survey of 237 mainstream traders, the average daily trading volume of building materials from Monday to Friday this week was 94100 tons, lower than last week's 114700 tons. The fundamentals maintain a pattern of weak supply and demand. It is currently the consumption off - season, inventory is starting to accumulate, and market sales pressure has increased. [9] 3.4 Market Outlook and Investment Strategies - Supply: Steel mills' overall profits are acceptable, and their production willingness has not significantly decreased. It is expected that production will continue to increase. [26] - Demand: The demand contradiction in the off - season is gradually emerging, consumption has declined month - on - month, and consumption sustainability is weak. [26] - Cost: The fourth round of coke price increase has been implemented, and the fifth round has started. The game between coke and steel mills has intensified, and cost support still exists. [26] - Overall: The steel fundamentals show some contradictions but still have cost support. It is expected that steel prices will fluctuate weakly in the short term. [26] - Investment Strategies: For single - sided trading, focus on range operations; for inter - period arbitrage, adopt a wait - and - see approach; for the coil - rebar spread, wait and see; for steel profits, wait and see; for options, use a wide - straddle consolidation strategy. [2][26][27]
钢材期货周度报告：宏观预期降温，关注限产扰动-20250804
Ning Zheng Qi Huo·2025-08-04 10:25