预期回归现实，锰硅高位调整

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Benefiting from the optimistic expectations and cost support brought by the strength of coke, the price of ferrosilicon manganese rose from a low level. However, the strong expectations were not fully realized, and the market operation logic was likely to switch to the industrial side. Currently, the supply - demand pattern of ferrosilicon manganese was relatively weak, industrial contradictions were likely to accumulate, and there was no positive news from the ore end, so the cost - driven increase was difficult to continue. Under the dominance of the industrial logic, the trend of ferrosilicon manganese was expected to fluctuate and consolidate at a high level. Attention should be paid to the implementation of the anti - involution policy in the industry [4][64]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Expected Dominance of the Black Market and the Rise of Ferrosilicon Manganese - In July, both the equity and commodity markets rose, benefiting from the positive expectations of the "anti - involution" policy. Industrial products in China increased collectively, and the black metals were also outstanding, with all futures prices rising significantly. The "anti - involution" was the trigger, and there were industrial and macro - level bases for this upward trend. In the off - season, the industrial contradictions in the black industry accumulated less, some varieties fell near the marginal cost, and the "anti - involution" triggered market expectations of supply - side reform, which jointly ignited the market's bullish sentiment, leading to the bottom - up rebound of black metals [8]. - Ferrosilicon manganese also rose. As of July 30, the main futures price of ferrosilicon manganese closed at 6,116 yuan/ton, a rise of 8.40% from the end of last month, and the highest price during the period reached 6,414 yuan/ton, a new high since mid - March. The strong futures price drove up the spot price, but the increase was relatively lower, and the basis weakened. The prices in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Tianjin increased by 4.50%, 8.89%, and 8.04% respectively. The tender price of mainstream steel mills also increased, and suppliers' willingness to hold prices was still strong. The regional price difference changed significantly during this rise, with the increases in Ningxia and Tianjin being significantly larger than that in Inner Mongolia due to the increase in speculative demand [10]. - In addition to the strong expectations, the increase in cost also promoted the rise of the ferrosilicon manganese price. During the rise of the black market, coking coal and coke performed strongly, providing cost support for ferrosilicon manganese. The average production costs in the northern and southern regions increased by 201.7 yuan and 301.8 yuan respectively compared with the end of last month [11]. - The industry held an "anti - involution" meeting and reached a preliminary consensus on production reduction. Enterprises actively expanded manganese ore reserves to ensure cost stability after production reduction. Overall, the price of ferrosilicon manganese rose from a low level in both futures and spot markets [15]. 3.2 Weak Real - World Pattern and Limited Upward Driving Force - The strong expectations were not fully realized, and the optimistic sentiment was revised. The Politburo meeting on July 30 adjusted the relevant statements, and the market's expectations for the anti - involution policy were repeated. The meeting did not directly mention real estate, weakening the market's expectations of policy relaxation in the real estate sector. The recently announced PMI data was lower than expected, with the value in July being 49.3%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in the manufacturing prosperity level [16]. - Affected by this, the market sentiment of ferrosilicon manganese weakened, and the operation logic was likely to switch to the industrial side. Currently, the inventory of ferrosilicon manganese was decreasing. The inventory in all major links decreased, especially the exchange warehouse receipts. The inventory of steel mills continued to be at a low level, and the inventory of production enterprises decreased from a high level. As of the week of August 1, the total in - plant inventory of ferrosilicon manganese production enterprises was 164,000 tons, which had decreased for four consecutive weeks. The inventory of steel mills also decreased, and the exchange warehouse receipts decreased by 52,700 tons compared with the end of June. However, once the demand weakened, the supply - demand contradiction might intensify, and the inventory was likely to accumulate again [19]. - Since mid - May, ferrosilicon manganese enterprises have actively resumed production, and the output has increased significantly. In July, the output was 819,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.94%. High - frequency data showed that the production of enterprises was stable, and the supply remained relatively high. As of the week of August 1, the operating rate of 187 independent ferrosilicon manganese enterprises was 42.18%, and the daily average output was 27,260 tons. The production in the main producing areas increased, and the output in Yunnan also increased significantly due to the seasonal factor of the wet season. Other regions' production was relatively stable [24][27]. - After the price of ferrosilicon manganese rose, the business situation of enterprises improved significantly, and the supply was expected to remain at a high level. As of July 30, the production costs in the northern and southern regions increased, but the spot price increased more, and the spot profit improved significantly. Ferrosilicon manganese still had an over - supply situation, and there were many new production capacities. In 2024, the total planned production capacity was 7.774 million tons, and in 2025, the planned production capacity was more than 3.5 million tons [34][36]. - Different from the supply situation, the demand for ferrosilicon manganese remained weakly stable. In the traditional off - season of the steel market, the demand for building materials was weak, and the output of rebar decreased, which affected the demand for ferrosilicon manganese. As of the week of August 1, the weekly demand for ferrosilicon manganese was 123,700 tons, a decrease of 1.72% from the end of June. The positive factor was that the tender volume and price of mainstream steel mills increased in July. Although steel mills were profitable and actively producing, the demand for ferrosilicon manganese was unlikely to increase significantly, and attention should be paid to the impact of production restrictions [37][38]. - In conclusion, due to the high - level rigid demand and the release of speculative demand, the inventory of ferrosilicon manganese decreased, but its supply - demand pattern was weak. With the improvement of profitability and the unchanged over - supply situation, the supply continued to increase while the demand remained weakly stable. If the market returned to the industrial logic, the price of ferrosilicon manganese was likely to be under pressure [46]. 3.3 Changing Supply - Demand Pattern of Manganese Ore and Difficult - to - Sustain Cost Support - During the rise of the black market in July, coking coal and coke were the strongest, providing cost support for ferrosilicon manganese. However, the subsequent upward space was limited. The main factors determining the cost of ferrosilicon manganese were the ore end and electricity price. Recently, the price of manganese ore was mostly stable, and the electricity price did not change much, so the increase in the cost of ferrosilicon manganese was limited [47]. - The supply - demand pattern of manganese ore was changing, gradually shifting from a tight supply situation at the beginning of the year to an over - supply situation, as reflected by the continuous increase in port inventory. As of the week of July 25, the total port inventory of manganese ore was 449,500 tons, an increase of 271,000 tons from the end of June. The increase in inventory was mainly due to the increase in supply, with the latest shipment volume reaching 1.1124 million tons, a new high for the single - week shipment volume this year. The increase in supply came from the recovery of the production capacity of South22 in Australia and the high - level shipment from South Africa [51]. - Different from the continuous increase in supply, the demand for manganese ore remained weakly stable. Although the price of ferrosilicon manganese rose and the business situation of production enterprises improved, the raw material procurement was mainly on - demand, and the port clearance volume changed little. As of the week of July 25, the port clearance volume of manganese ore was 516,400 tons, a decrease of 69,600 tons from the end of last month [60]. - In summary, the strength of coke provided support for ferrosilicon manganese, but the main factors determining its cost were the ore end and electricity price. Currently, the electricity price was stable, while the supply of manganese ore was increasing and the demand was weak. The price of manganese ore was likely to be under pressure, and the cost - driven increase was difficult to continue [63]. 3.4 Conclusion - Benefiting from the positive policy expectations of "anti - involution", the black metals rose collectively since July, and the price of ferrosilicon manganese also increased. However, the strong expectations were not fully realized, and the market operation logic was likely to switch to the industrial side. The supply - demand pattern of ferrosilicon manganese was weak, with increasing supply and weakly stable demand. The supply - demand pattern of manganese ore was also changing, and the cost - driven increase was difficult to continue. Under the dominance of the industrial logic, the trend of ferrosilicon manganese was expected to fluctuate and consolidate at a high level, and attention should be paid to the implementation of the anti - involution policy in the industry [64].