Report Information - Report Title: Ferroalloy Industry Risk Management Daily Report - Date: August 4, 2025 - Author: Chen Mintao (Z0022731) [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - After the meeting last week, the market became clearer about the anti - involution tone. Policy focuses on capacity governance in some industries rather than overall capacity reduction. The policy fell short of expectations, and the commodity market cooled down. Ferroalloys gave back previous gains and returned to their fundamentals. Steel mills' good profit and high hot metal production support ferroalloy demand in the short - term, but long - term demand faces challenges from the weak real estate market and uncertain policy - driven support in the home appliance and automotive sectors. The manganese ore supply is sufficient, and the support from the ore end to ferromanganese is insufficient. Although the anti - involution trading sentiment has subsided, there is still some market expectation for supply - side contraction, and the risk of shorting further is high with limited downside space [4] Detailed Summaries Price Forecast and Volatility - Silicon iron price range forecast (monthly): 5300 - 6000 yuan/ton, current 20 - day rolling volatility is 25.65%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility in 3 years is 69.0% - Ferromanganese price range forecast (monthly): 5300 - 6000 yuan/ton, current 20 - day rolling volatility is 15.48%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility in 3 years is 28.5% [3] Hedging Strategies - Inventory Management: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about ferroalloy price drops, sell SF2509 and SM2509 futures contracts with a 15% hedging ratio at the entry intervals of 6200 - 6250 yuan/ton for silicon iron and 6400 - 6500 yuan/ton for ferromanganese to lock in profits and cover production costs [3] - Procurement Management: For enterprises with low regular procurement inventory and planning to purchase based on orders, buy SF2509 and SM2509 futures contracts with a 25% hedging ratio at the entry intervals of 5100 - 5200 yuan/ton for silicon iron and 5300 - 5400 yuan/ton for ferromanganese to lock in procurement costs in advance [3] Core Contradictions - Policy on capacity governance is not as expected, leading to market cooling. Short - term ferroalloy demand is supported by steel mills' profit and high hot metal production, but long - term demand is uncertain due to the real estate market and policy - dependent sectors. Manganese ore supply is sufficient, and the support for ferromanganese from the ore end is weak. There is still some expectation for supply - side contraction, but shorting further is risky [4] Bullish Factors - Silicon iron: Profits in Inner Mongolia and Ningxia production areas increased, with Inner Mongolia at +85 yuan/ton (+6) and Ningxia at 282 yuan/ton (+56). The government's strict control policy on high - energy - consuming industries may lead to the industrial structure adjustment and upgrading of the ferromanganese industry [5] Bearish Factors - Silicon Iron: The weekly operating rate of silicon iron production enterprises was 33.76%, a week - on - week increase of 0.43%, and the weekly output was 10.44 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.31%. The five - major steel products' demand for silicon iron this week was 1.99 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1%. The enterprise inventory was 6.56 tons, a week - on - week increase of 5.64%, and the total inventory was 17.56 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.62% [7] - Ferromanganese: In the long run, the real estate market is sluggish, and the black sector has declined. There are doubts about the growth of steel terminal demand, and the demand for ferromanganese is relatively weak. The profits in the northern and southern regions of ferromanganese are negative and decreasing. The weekly operating rate of ferromanganese production enterprises was 42.18%, a week - on - week increase of 0.6%, and the weekly output was 19.08 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.31%. The total inventory was 60.1 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.3% [7] Daily Data - Silicon Iron: On August 4, 2025, compared with August 1, 2025, the spot prices in various regions decreased, and the basis and futures spreads also changed. For example, the silicon iron basis in Ningxia decreased by 36 yuan/ton, and the spot price in Ningxia decreased by 150 yuan/ton [7] - Ferromanganese: On August 4, 2025, compared with August 1, 2025, the basis and futures spreads changed, and the prices of manganese ore and other raw materials also had slight fluctuations. For example, the ferromanganese basis in Inner Mongolia decreased by 46 yuan/ton, and the price of Tianjin Australian ore decreased by 0.5 [8] Seasonal Data - Seasonal data on market prices, basis, futures spreads, and inventory of silicon iron and ferromanganese are provided, which can help analyze the historical performance and trends of the products [9][18][30]
铁合金产业风险管理日报-20250804
Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-08-04 10:20