“月度前瞻”系列专题之一：7月经济：涨价的“悖论”？-20250804

Inflation and Pricing - Inflation expectations are rising due to "anti-involution" policies, but price performance is expected to remain weak, with July PPI and CPI forecasted at -3.1% and 0% respectively[1] - The core CPI is likely to be suppressed by lower downstream PPI and falling agricultural prices, with July CPI expected to remain around 0% year-on-year[2] Supply and Production - Supply has not significantly contracted; industrial production remains resilient, with July industrial added value expected to be around 6.4% year-on-year[3] - The PMI production index fell 0.5 percentage points to 50.5%, indicating continued expansion, while the new orders index dropped to 49.4%, signaling a contraction in demand[4] Demand and Economic Growth - Demand structure is diverging, with weak goods demand but strong service demand, leading to a slight decline in July's actual GDP growth to 4.9% year-on-year[5] - Exports are expected to rise to approximately 6.8% in July, driven by low base effects and previous "export grabbing" activities, but risks of decline loom in September[6] Investment Trends - Investment performance is mixed; real estate and manufacturing investments may decline, while infrastructure and service sector investments are expected to improve due to accelerated special bond issuance[7] - The overall economic logic in July revolves around price increases, but supply-side production is increasing while demand remains weak, limiting the sustainability of price rises[8]