价格的财政决定理论

Group 1: FTPL Theory Overview - The Fiscal Theory of the Price Level (FTPL) posits that fiscal policy dominates macroeconomic control, determining economic fluctuations and price trends, while monetary policy plays a supportive role[1] - FTPL contrasts with the Ricardian equivalence theory, suggesting that government debt value is recognized by the market and can be reduced through inflation rather than future tax commitments[6] - The optimal policy combination is active monetary policy and prudent fiscal policy, ensuring inflation control and sustainable debt levels[2] Group 2: Model Analysis and Implications - In the FTPL model (a=1, γ=0.01), monetary policy approaches ineffectiveness (a<1), leading to a loss of fiscal discipline and potential debt growth, with inflation rising continuously[2] - The Taylor rule requires a>1 for effective inflation control, while γ>r-g (where r=0.0101 and g=0) is necessary for fiscal discipline and sustainability[2] - Historical cases, such as post-World War I France and Germany, illustrate FTPL's principles, where excessive debt led to hyperinflation as governments resorted to money printing[10][11] Group 3: DSGE Model Findings - The DSGE model indicates that under a policy combination of active fiscal and passive monetary policies, inflation pressure is significant, and controlling it takes a prolonged period (up to 400 time units) even with reduced money supply[22] - Comparing fiscal and monetary shocks reveals that deficit monetization significantly increases inflation, validating the FTPL theory[26] - The model's results emphasize that only combinations of active monetary or fiscal policies can stabilize the economy, while both passive lead to instability[18]