降息预期升温，支撑铜下方空间

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report After the copper tariff is implemented, the market returns to fundamentals. The US non - farm payroll data increases the expectation of a September interest rate cut, and the weakening US dollar supports copper prices. The fundamentals remain in a loose logic, but the low domestic inventory limits the downside space, with the overall trend being weak. Attention should be paid to the support level of 78,000 yuan/ton [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Strategy Analysis - The US July non - farm payrolls only added 73,000, with the June data significantly revised down to 14,000. The unemployment rate rose to 4.2%. The probability of a Fed rate cut in September soared from 37.7% to 90%, strengthening the expectation of two rate cuts within the year. - In July, SMM China's electrolytic copper production increased by 39,400 tons month - on - month and 14.21% year - on - year. TC/RC fees are still negative but have stopped falling and rebounded. Three smelters have maintenance plans in the third quarter. Currently, smelters can still make up for losses with by - products such as sulfuric acid. - In the off - season, demand is weak, and market trading sentiment is tepid. The subsequent imposition of tariffs on copper semi - finished products may affect export demand. The SHFE inventory is still at a low level and has not significantly accumulated, supporting the price [1]. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The Shanghai copper futures market opened high, then declined, and rebounded at the end of the session, closing at 78,330 yuan/ton. The long positions of the top 20 decreased by 4,500 to 106,069 lots, and the short positions decreased by 985 to 109,223 lots. - Spot: The spot premium in East China is 130 yuan/ton, and in South China it is - 55 yuan/ton. On August 1, 2025, the LME official price was 9,592 US dollars/ton, and the spot premium was - 56.5 US dollars/ton [4]. Supply Side As of August 1, the spot rough smelting fee (TC) was - 41.99 US dollars/dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) was - 4.19 cents/pound [6]. Fundamental Tracking - SHFE copper inventory is 0.67 million tons, a decrease of 500 tons from the previous period. As of August 1, the copper inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 7.51 million tons, an increase of 0.35 million tons from the previous period. - LME copper inventory was 139,575 tons, a slight decrease of 2,175 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory was 259,681 short tons, an increase of 1,766 short tons from the previous period [9].