集装箱运输市场日报：宏观情绪影响期价走势，SCFIS小幅下行-20250804

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the document. 2. Core View of the Report - Today, the futures prices of each contract of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) opened lower and then fluctuated upwards. Except for the EC2508 contract which remained relatively stable as it entered the delivery month, the prices of other contracts declined slightly. The US tariff policy affected the macro - sentiment, and the sentiment of the EC contract was also negatively impacted, causing it to open lower. Additionally, the futures price trend was also affected by the spot cabin quotes on the European line, which led to a slight downward movement. For the future, it is expected that the EC will likely maintain a volatile and slightly downward trend, with some contracts possibly experiencing a slight rebound after reaching short - term lows. In the medium term, without sudden events, the overall futures price trend may still be slightly downward [1]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs EC Risk Management Strategy - Position Management: For those who have already obtained positions but have full capacity or poor booking volume and are worried about falling freight rates, they can short the container shipping index futures (EC2510) in the range of 1700 - 1800 to lock in profits [1]. - Cost Management: When shipping companies increase blank sailings or the market is about to enter the peak season, and they want to book cabins according to order situations, they can buy the container shipping index futures (EC2510) in the range of 1300 - 1400 to lock in booking costs in advance [1]. EC Market Analysis - Contract Price and Position Changes: As of the close, the EC2510 contract saw long positions reduce by 4 to 26,442, short positions reduce by 1,190 to 30,717, and trading volume decrease by 5,287 to 38,535 (bilateral) [1]. - Price and Spread: On August 4, 2025, the closing prices of EC2508, EC2510, EC2512, EC2602, EC2604, and EC2606 decreased by - 0.20%, - 0.15%, - 0.90%, - 1.33%, - 1.11%, and - 0.81% respectively compared to the previous day. The spreads between different contracts also showed corresponding changes [4]. - Base Difference: The base differences of EC2508, EC2510, EC2512, EC2602, EC2604, and EC2606 on August 4, 2025, were 175.56, 876.06, 620.66, 827.66, 982.76, and 844.66 respectively, with daily and weekly changes [4]. Market News and Influencing Factors - Likely Positive Factor: Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu's determination to "eliminate" Hamas may have an impact on the market, but the specific impact on the container shipping market is not detailed [2]. - Negative Factors: Some major shipping companies lowered the spot cabin quotes on the European line in mid - August. The US implemented new tariffs, which increased the actual tariff rate to 17%, affecting the macro - trade environment and the container shipping market [1][3]. Shipping Quotes and Indexes - Container Shipping Spot Quotes: The total quotes for 20GP and 40GP containers on different shipping lines from Shanghai to Rotterdam showed different trends of increase or decrease in mid - to late August [6]. - Global Freight Rate Indexes: The SCFIS, SCFI, XSI, and FBX comprehensive freight rate indexes for European and US - West routes showed different degrees of increase or decrease. For example, the SCFIS for the European route decreased by 0.81% to 2297.86 points, and the FBX comprehensive freight rate index increased by 0.09% to 2302 dollars/FEU [7]. Port and Shipping Data - Port Waiting Time: The waiting times at major global ports such as Hong Kong, Shanghai, and Singapore showed different changes on August 3, 2025, compared to the previous day and the same period last year [14]. - Shipping Speed and Waiting Ships: The average speeds of 8000 +, 3000 +, and 1000 + container ships and the number of container ships waiting at the Suez Canal port anchorage on August 3, 2025, showed certain changes compared to the previous day and the same period last year [22].