贵金属周报：非农爆冷，金价反弹-20250804

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Last week, the gold price first declined and then rebounded. At the end of July, the US reached new tariff agreements with Japan and Europe, and a new round of China-US talks was held in Sweden. The uncertainty of tariffs decreased significantly, market risk appetite continued to rise, and the gold price continued to fall. However, the unexpectedly poor US non-farm payrolls data on Friday night caused the gold price to rebound sharply. Against the background of reduced tariff disturbances, the US inflation data rebounded more than expected, and the non-farm payrolls data was disappointing, which increased the market's expectation of a US economic recession and was beneficial to the gold price. In addition, the expectation of a Fed rate cut may rise as the economic outlook weakens, and the US dollar index may weaken again, which is also beneficial to the gold price. It is expected that the gold price will run strongly, and attention can be paid to the technical pressure at the upper edge of the range [3][10][23]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review 1.1 Weekly Trend - The weekly trend is presented through the linkage chart of the US dollar index and the futures closing price of COMEX gold [7][9]. 1.2 Indicator Price Changes | Indicator | August 1 | July 25 | Weekly Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | COMEX Gold | 3,416.00 | 3,338.50 | 2.32% | | COMEX Silver | 37.11 | 38.33 | -3.18% | | SHFE Gold Main Contract | 770.72 | 777.32 | -0.85% | | SHFE Silver Main Contract | 8,918.00 | 9,392.00 | -5.05% | | US Dollar Index | 98.69 | 97.67 | 1.05% | | US Dollar against Offshore RMB | 7.19 | 7.17 | 0.31% | | 10-Year US Treasury Real Yield | 1.90 | 1.96 | -0.06 | | S&P 500 | 6,238.01 | 6,388.64 | -2.36% | | US Crude Oil Continuous | 67.26 | 65.07 | 3.37% | | COMEX Gold-Silver Ratio | 92.06 | 87.11 | 5.69% | | SHFE Gold-Silver Ratio | 86.42 | 82.76 | 4.42% | | SPDR Gold ETF | 953.08 | 957.09 | -4.01 | | iShare Gold ETF | 450.04 | 449.60 | 0.44% | [8] 2. Unexpectedly Poor Non-Farm Payrolls, Gold Price Rebounds - The gold price first declined and then rebounded last week. The unexpectedly poor US non-farm payrolls data on Friday night caused the gold price to rebound sharply. In July, the newly added non-farm payrolls were only 73,000 (expected 110,000), the lowest since October 2024. In addition, historical data was also significantly revised downward. The data for May was revised down from 144,000 to 19,000, and that for June was revised down from 147,000 to 14,000. The total revision for the two months was 258,000, the worst three-month average since the pandemic (with an average of only 35,000 per month). The unemployment rate rose to 4.2% (previous value 4.1%), rising for the third consecutive month. The labor participation rate dropped to 62.2%, a three-year low, reflecting the shrinkage of the labor supply due to the tightening of immigration policies. On Friday, the US dollar index and the US Treasury yield declined significantly due to the non-farm payrolls data. The US stock market showed a high-level decline trend, and market panic increased significantly [10][12][14]. 3. Tracking of Other Indicators - Since late May, the net long position of non-commercial traders on COMEX has been continuously rising. According to the data on July 29, compared with the previous week, the long position changed by -30,708 contracts, the short position changed by -1,266 contracts, and the net long position changed by -29,442 contracts. This indicator is more sensitive to the price trend of precious metals than the gold ETF, but its update frequency is low and its timeliness is poor. Last week, the bullish sentiment in the domestic market cooled down, silver prices continued to fall from high levels, and the gold-silver ratio began to rebound. Since late July, the holdings of precious metal ETFs have shown a slight decline [18][20][22]. 4. Conclusion - The gold price first declined and then rebounded last week. Against the background of reduced tariff disturbances, the US inflation data rebounded more than expected, and the non-farm payrolls data was disappointing, which increased the market's expectation of a US economic recession and was beneficial to the gold price. In addition, the expectation of a Fed rate cut may rise as the economic outlook weakens, and the US dollar index may weaken again, which is also beneficial to the gold price. It is expected that the gold price will run strongly, and attention can be paid to the technical pressure at the upper edge of the range [23].