双焦期货周度报告：市场情绪降温，盘面回调明显-20250804

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The domestic supply recovery and the increase in Mongolian coal imports still need time to materialize, and the de - stocking cycle of upstream coal mines continues. After the market sentiment fades, the futures price returns to a reasonable range. In the short term, the fundamental contradictions are not prominent, and the futures market is expected to fluctuate and adjust [32]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 This Week's Market Review - The price of coking coal in the domestic market continued its volatile and upward trend this week, but the increase narrowed, mostly in the range of 50 - 100 yuan/ton. The price of coke increased continuously, with the fourth price increase implemented on the 28th, and the cumulative increase reached 200 - 220 yuan/ton [4]. 3.2 Macroeconomic and Industrial News - The central government emphasizes continued and timely efforts in macro - policies in the second half of the year, focusing on expanding domestic demand, boosting consumption, and promoting economic circulation. The decision to hold the 20th Fourth Plenary Session in October to study the 15th Five - Year Plan is made. A new round of China - US economic and trade talks was held, and both sides agreed to extend the suspension of certain tariffs for 90 days [6]. - From January to June 2025, the total profit of large - scale industrial enterprises in China was 343.65 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 1.8%. The profit of the ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry increased 13.7 times year - on - year. In July, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, a seasonal decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month [6][7]. - In June 2025, China's steel exports were 9.678 million tons, a decrease of 8.5% from the previous month, and the export price decreased by 1.6%. From January to June, the cumulative steel exports were 58.147 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.9%, and the export price decreased by 10.2%. In June, steel imports were 470,000 tons, a decrease of 2.4% from the previous month, and the import price decreased by 2.1%. From January to June, the cumulative steel imports were 3.023 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 16.4%, and the import price increased by 2.2% [7]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis - Supply side: Affected by factors such as over - production inspections, completion of monthly production tasks, and underground conditions in some areas this week, the daily output of raw coal decreased slightly. However, the overall demand for coking coal was relatively strong, and coal mines significantly reduced their inventories [2]. - Demand side: The molten iron output decreased slightly but remained at a high level. The fourth price increase of coke was implemented, and mainstream coking enterprises proposed a fifth price increase, but mainstream steel mills have not responded yet. Coking and steel enterprises maintained a rigid demand for raw coal procurement under high production loads and stable inventory consumption. Future changes in the operation of coal mines, coking, and steel enterprises need to be monitored [2]. 3.4 Market Outlook and Investment Strategies - Market outlook: The futures market is expected to fluctuate and adjust in the short term. - Investment strategies: For single - sided trading, focus on range - bound operations; for inter - period arbitrage, mainly adopt a wait - and - see approach; for coking profit trading, also adopt a wait - and - see approach [32].