股债跷跷板依然为主逻辑，国债震荡偏空

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the bond market is "oscillating with a bearish bias" [5] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The stock - bond seesaw remains the main logic for the bond market recently. The short - term correction of A - shares gives impetus to the bond market's rebound. The economic sentiment declined in July, and counter - cyclical adjustment needs to be continuously strengthened. The keynote for the second half of the year is an active fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy, but the incremental policies exceeding market expectations may be limited [2][4][30] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Market Review - The stock - bond seesaw logic has led the long - end bond market to effectively break below the 60 - day moving average, and this logic may continue to dominate the bond market [10] Chapter 2: Overview of Important News - The Ministry of Finance requires state - owned commercial insurance companies to improve asset - liability management. China's official manufacturing PMI in July was 49.3, a decline of 0.4 percentage points month - on - month, and the non - manufacturing PMI was 50.1, also down 0.4 percentage points month - on - month. The Politburo meeting emphasized maintaining policy continuity and stability. The China - US economic and trade talks reached a consensus on the extension of tariffs. The profit decline of industrial enterprises above designated size narrowed in June, and multiple departments planned key work for the second half of the year [14][16] Chapter 3: Analysis of Important Influencing Factors 3.1 Economic Fundamentals - China's economic data showed certain resilience in the second quarter, with GDP growth exceeding expectations. However, the economic sentiment declined in July, and counter - cyclical adjustment needs to be strengthened [17] 3.2 Policy Aspect - In June 2025, the social financing scale stock increased year - on - year, and the M2 - M1 gap narrowed, indicating that real - sector enterprises are more optimistic about the economic outlook [19] 3.3 Capital Aspect - The bond market interest rate and DR007 have decreased significantly, and the capital is already relatively loose. The probability of significant monetary easing such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts in the second half of the year is low [21] 3.4 Supply - Demand Aspect - The issuance of local bonds and special bonds has accelerated recently. The issuance of special bonds and ultra - long - term special treasury bonds has basically been realized, and the market is waiting for the effects and implementation of relevant policies [24] 3.5 Sentiment Aspect - The stock - bond ratio has broken through the short - term shock range, indicating that the market's attention to the stock market is greater than that to the bond market, and the market risk appetite has increased [27] Chapter 4: Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - The themes for the second half of the year are anti - involution and maintaining stable economic recovery. The start of infrastructure projects increases the market's expectation of further fiscal and infrastructure efforts. The short - term correction of A - shares gives impetus to the bond market, and investors should pay attention to the subsequent trend of the stock market [30]