多空博弈，煤焦继续整理

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - For coke, this week's supply stabilized while demand decreased slightly, with the fundamentals still under some pressure. However, the profitability rate of downstream steel mills improved month - on - month, and the molten iron output showed certain resilience. The manufacturing PMI in July was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month. After the Politburo meeting on July 30, the market's optimistic sentiment had a phased correction. In the short term, coke futures may fluctuate widely, and future market focus will gradually return to the actual supply of coking coal [5][33]. - For coking coal, as of the week ending August 1, the daily average output of clean coal from 523 coking coal mines was 77.7 tons, flat week - on - week and 0.6 tons higher than last year. The supply from Mongolia increased rapidly. The fundamentals of coking coal did not improve significantly. After the previous upward drivers were realized, the coking coal futures corrected from high levels. In the long - term, after the capacity optimization and upgrade of the coal industry, the coal price center is expected to gradually rise [6][34]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Information - The land market in core Chinese cities showed a trend of "decreasing volume but improving quality" from January to July. The average premium rate of land transactions in first - and second - tier core cities exceeded 10%. The average transaction floor price of residential land in 300 cities increased by 34.3% year - on - year, and the land transfer revenue increased by more than 20% [8]. - On August 4, the price of coking coal in the Jinzhong market rose by 50 yuan/ton [9]. 3.2 Spot Market - For coke, the current price of quasi - first - grade coke at Rizhao Port's FOB was 1,420 yuan/ton, up 7.58% week - on - week; at Qingdao Port's ex - warehouse, it was 1,400 yuan/ton, up 1.45% week - on - week [10]. - For coking coal, the current price of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port was 1,150 yuan/ton, up 11.65% week - on - week; Australian - produced coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1,490 yuan/ton, up 1.36% week - on - week; Shanxi - produced coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1,650 yuan/ton, up 10.00% week - on - week [10]. 3.3 Futures Market - The closing price of the active coke futures contract was 1,615.0 yuan/ton, with a decline of 0.15%. The trading volume was 30,451, and the open interest was 25,782 [13]. - The closing price of the active coking coal futures contract was 1,141.0 yuan/ton, with an increase of 2.33%. The trading volume was 1,908,758, and the open interest was 487,977 [13]. 3.4 Relevant Charts - There are charts showing the inventory of coke (including independent coking plants, steel mill coking plants, ports, and total inventory), the inventory of coking coal (including mine mouth, ports, steel mills, and all - sample independent coking plants), domestic steel mill production, Shanghai terminal wire and screw procurement volume, coal washery production, and coking plant operation [14][20][26] 3.5 Future Outlook - Coke futures are expected to fluctuate widely in the short term, and the market will gradually focus on the actual supply of coking coal [5][33]. - After the correction of coking coal futures, the coal price center is expected to gradually rise in the long - term [6][34]