固收、宏观周报：美国非农大幅下修与美联储降息预期提升-20250804

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating The document does not provide the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - Most global equity markets declined in the past week, with US stocks, A - shares, and the Hang Seng Index all falling. However, some sectors like communication and innovation - drugs showed positive performance [3][4][5]. - Interest rates on bonds decreased, with the price of interest - rate bonds rising and the yield curve shifting downwards. The central bank conducted net open - market operations [6][7]. - The US dollar appreciated, while the domestic gold price declined. The policy of resuming VAT on new bonds may lead to a divergence between new and existing bonds [11][12]. - The US non - farm payrolls were lower than expected, increasing the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in September. There are also concerns about the reliability of employment data and the Fed's independence [13][14][15]. - In the future, A - shares are expected to have investment opportunities, the bond market will likely maintain a low - yield narrow - range oscillation, and gold may continue to rise [16]. 3. Summary by Related Content Stock Market Performance - US Stocks: In the past week (20250728 - 20250803), the Nasdaq, S&P 500, and Dow Jones Industrial Average declined by 2.17%, 2.36%, and 2.92% respectively. The Nasdaq China Technology Index fell 3.20% [3]. - A - shares: The Wind All - A Index dropped 1.09%. Most sectors and industries declined, with communication and innovation - drugs leading the gainers. Among the 30 Citic industries, 24 declined and 6 rose. The leading industries had a weekly gain of over 2% [4][5]. - Hong Kong Stocks: The Hang Seng Index declined 3.47% in the past week [3]. Bond Market Performance - Interest - rate Bonds: The 10 - year Treasury bond futures rose 0.24% compared to July 25, 2025. The yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond active bond decreased by 2.65 BP to 1.7059%. The yield curve shifted downwards [6]. - Funding Costs: As of August 1, 2025, R007 was 1.4864%, down 20.73 BP from July 25, 2025; DR007 was 1.4242%, down 22.81 BP. The central bank had a net open - market operation of 69 billion yuan [7]. - US Treasury Bonds: The yield of the 10 - year US Treasury bond decreased by 17 BP to 4.23% compared to July 25, 2025, and the yield curve shifted downwards [10]. Commodity Market Performance - US Dollar and Gold: The US dollar index rose 1.04%. The domestic gold price declined, with Shanghai gold spot down 0.89% to 767.29 yuan/gram and futures down 0.94% to 767.44 yuan/gram [11]. Policy Impact - VAT on Bonds: Newly issued Treasury bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds will be subject to VAT starting from August 8, 2025, while existing bonds remain tax - exempt until maturity. This may lead to a divergence in the performance of new and existing bonds [12]. US Economic Data - Non - farm Payrolls: In July, the US non - farm payrolls increased by 73,000, significantly lower than the expected 106,000. The market's expectation of a 25 - BP Fed rate cut in September rose from 38.4% to 77.7% [13][14]. - Employment Data Concerns: The significant downward revision of May and June non - farm payrolls and the firing of the BLS director may have raised concerns about the reliability of employment data and the Fed's independence [13][15].