铜铝周报：美国新一轮关税落地，铜铝价格承压调整-20250804

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report Copper - Macro - aspect: The decline of China's July manufacturing PMI and the implementation of a new round of US tariff policies have put pressure on the market [4]. - Fundamentals: On the supply side, the shortage of domestic spot copper and bill fluctuations limit circulation, and holders are eager to hold prices. On the demand side, copper prices are still at a high level and in the off - season, so demand is weak. - Overall logic: After the US tariff on copper is implemented, COMEX copper has fallen sharply. Domestic copper prices are also under short - term pressure. It is recommended to wait for the price to stabilize gradually. The upper reference pressure level for the SHFE copper 2509 contract is 80,000 yuan/ton, and the lower reference support level is 76,000 yuan/ton [4]. Electrolytic Aluminum - Macro - aspect: Similar to copper, the decline of China's July manufacturing PMI and the new US tariff policy have affected the market [6]. - Fundamentals: On the supply side, the operating capacity of domestic electrolytic aluminum is stable, the proportion of molten aluminum has decreased, the ingot casting volume has increased, and social inventories have continued to accumulate, suppressing the rise of aluminum prices. The cost is stable, but the average industry profit has narrowed by about 149 yuan/ton. On the demand side, it is still the off - season, and the demand has not improved significantly. As of August 4, domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 564,000 tons, 20,000 tons more than last Thursday, and the inventory accumulation expectation is still strong. - Overall logic: The new US tariff policy is negative for the demand outlook of industrial metals. The decline of China's July manufacturing PMI requires attention to policy. The off - season supply - demand is under pressure, and aluminum prices may remain oscillating at a high level. The upper reference pressure level for the SHFE aluminum 2509 contract is 21,000 yuan/ton, and the lower reference support level is 20,200 yuan/ton [6]. Alumina - Macro - aspect: The decline of China's July manufacturing PMI and the new US tariff policy have put pressure on the market [8]. - Fundamentals: As of July 31, the total built - in production capacity of national metallurgical alumina was 110.32 million tons/year, and the operating total production capacity was 90.92 million tons/year. The weekly operating rate increased by 2.02 percentage points to 82.41%. The alumina market is in an oversupply pattern, and downstream aluminum plants' raw material inventories are at a high level. - Overall logic: Although the alumina fundamentals are in an oversupply pattern, macro - funds' sentiment and low - level warehouse receipts have a certain impact on the futures price. It should be treated with a short - term bullish mindset. The upper reference pressure level for the SHFE alumina 2509 contract is 3,600 yuan/ton, and the lower reference support level is 3,000 yuan/ton [8]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 01. Market Review - Weekly market review: The document provides the cumulative percentage changes in the prices of various metals from July 28 to August 1, but specific data is not described in detail in the text [16]. - Weekly news review: - On July 30, the US announced a 50% tariff on several imported copper products starting from August 1. - On July 31, a copper mine in Chile collapsed due to an earthquake, causing casualties and suspending underground operations. - Chile's copper production in June was 424,390 tons, a 6% year - on - year decrease. - Ghana cancelled a $1.2 billion bauxite lease and sought cooperation with overseas companies. - The EU and the US will establish a metal alliance, and EU steel and aluminum producers will enjoy a quota system and low or zero - tariff treatment [17]. 02. Macro Analysis - Domestic market: In July, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, a 0.4 - percentage - point decline from the previous month. The decline was mainly due to the traditional off - season, high - temperature, and natural disasters [19]. - Overseas market: - The Fed maintained the federal funds target rate range at 4.25 - 4.50% in July, but two directors voted against it, indicating differences in economic judgment and the interest - rate cut path. - In July, the number of new non - farm jobs in the US was 73,000, lower than expected, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%. The new non - farm job data for May and June was significantly revised downward. - On July 31, Trump signed an executive order to determine "reciprocal tariffs" ranging from 10% to 41% for multiple countries and regions [22][24][26]. 03. Copper Market Analysis - Spot market: The processing fee TC remains weak [30]. - Futures market: COMEX net long positions have declined [33]. - Overseas market: The US dollar index has rebounded [37]. - Inventory: - Exchange inventories: The document shows the inventory trends of copper in Shanghai bonded areas, SHFE, LME, and COMEX over the years [39]. - Social inventories: As of July 31, the SMM national mainstream copper inventory was 119,300 tons, a weekly increase of 5,100 tons, and 229,100 tons lower than the same period last year. The weekly operating rate of domestic major refined copper rod enterprises increased to 71.73% from July 25 to July 31, and it is expected to increase to 72.8% from August 1 to August 7 [44]. 04. Electrolytic Aluminum Market Analysis - Domestic market: The spot has turned to a discount [48]. - Foreign market: The US dollar index has weakened [50]. - Weekly inventory: The document shows the trends of electrolytic aluminum social inventories, aluminum rod social inventories, SHFE aluminum inventories, and LME aluminum total inventories over the years [52]. - Downstream开工: As of July 31, the overall operating rate of the domestic aluminum downstream processing industry decreased by 0.1 percentage point to 58.6%. It is expected to slightly decrease to 58.5% this week [54]. - Recycled aluminum alloy: As of July 31, the SMM ADC12 price was 20,100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton. The industry is facing raw - material shortages, profit inversions, and weak demand. The social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas has increased to 34,489 tons [59]. - Cost - profit: The document shows the relationship between electrolytic aluminum cost, profit, and price [64]. 05. Alumina Market Analysis - Spot market: The spot price has remained stable [67]. - Futures market: The inventory of futures is at a low level [70]. - Supply - demand: - Supply: The supply of alumina has increased. As of July 31, China's alumina built - in production capacity was 114.8 million tons, and the operating production capacity was 94.8 million tons. - Demand: The operating capacity of the electrolytic aluminum industry has slightly increased, leading to an increase in alumina demand [75]. - Cost - profit: As of July 31, the domestic alumina industry cost was 2,998.37 yuan/ton, and the average industry profit was 271.27 yuan/ton [76].