黑色产业数据每日监测-20250804

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - The black - series commodity futures basically stabilized on August 4. The futures market decline recently cooled the previous positive sentiment, but the spot coal price remained firm due to good sales and pre - orders. The coking coal demand was strong with low inventory. The coke market was in a tight - balance state with positive sentiment and upward price momentum [1]. - After the fourth round of price increase for coke, the profit of coke enterprises continued to shrink, but the inventory decreased, and the demand from steel mills was rigid, so the price had the power to run steadily and strongly [1]. 3) Summary by Related Content Market Overview - On August 4, the closing price of rebar was 3204 yuan/ton, down 0.28%; the hot - rolled coil contract closed at 3417 yuan/ton, up 0.26%; the iron ore contract closed at 790.5 yuan/ton; the double - coking futures showed a V - shaped trend [1]. Market Analysis - Coking Coal: The recent futures market decline cooled the sentiment, and some traders sold to realize profits. However, coal mines had good sales and pre - orders, so the pit - mouth coal price remained firm. The coking coal demand was strong supported by high -开工 rate of downstream coke enterprises and high iron - water output. The inventory was low, with upstream inventory decreasing and downstream increasing. Last week, the inventory of 523 sample mines decreased by 30.2 tons to 248.3 tons (the lowest since March 2024), the inventory of coal - washing plants decreased by 9.23 tons to 166.38 tons (the lowest in a year), the port inventory decreased by 3.53% to 493.94 tons, and the inventory of independent coke enterprises and steel mills increased slightly to 992.73 tons and 803.79 tons respectively (both at the highest in nearly half a year). The market had a fear of high prices, and the proportion of unsold lots increased by 4.5% week - on - week, but the overall transaction price still trended upward [1]. - Coke: After the fourth round of price increase, the profit of coke enterprises continued to shrink, with the profit per ton of 30 independent coking plants increasing only slightly by 9 yuan to - 45 yuan/ton. Some coking enterprises cut production due to losses, affecting the daily output. The supply was tight. With the high daily iron - water output of steel mills, the procurement enthusiasm of steel mills and the intermediate trading links was high, and the inventory of independent coking enterprises decreased by 8.11% to 73.62 tons (the lowest in 9 months). The cost support was significantly enhanced, and the market sentiment was positive. On August 3, some mainstream steel mills in the Hebei market planned to increase the price of wet coke by 50 yuan/ton and dry - quenched coke by 55 yuan/ton, effective at 0:00 on August 4, 2025 [1]. Investment Suggestions - Iron Ore: Pay attention to supply - demand changes and inventory, and avoid chasing high prices [1]. - Rebar: Investors are advised to adopt a volatile trading strategy in the short term and pay attention to the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar [1]. - Hot - Rolled Coil: Investors are advised to adopt a high - level consolidation trading strategy in the short term and pay attention to supply - demand changes [1]. - Double - Coking: Pay attention to the oscillating market after the decline stabilizes or the strength - weakness relationship between the two [1]. Summary The double - coking futures prices declined due to market sentiment fluctuations, but the spot market had low inventory and strong demand, so there was still price support [1].