驱动逻辑减弱，甲醇震荡偏弱

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Since early July 2025, the "anti-involution" policy led to a rapid rise in the domestic coal chemical industry, with methanol futures 2509 contract rising by 7.36% at most. After the policy expectation was digested, the coal chemical futures sector declined, and the methanol futures 2509 contract fell by 5.00% last week and continued to be weak this week. The 9 - 1 month spread widened, showing the weakness of the near - month contract [6]. - With the digestion of the macro - optimistic expectation, the bullish sentiment in the domestic commodity futures market weakened, and the coal futures prices declined, dragging down the methanol futures prices. The supply pressure of methanol at home and abroad is still high, and the downstream demand is in the off - season. The weak supply - demand structure may lead to a downward shift in the price center. It is expected that the domestic methanol futures 2509 contract may maintain a weak and volatile trend [7]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Preface: "Anti - involution" Policy Driving Weakens, Coal Chemicals Fall Collectively - Since early July 2025, the "anti - involution" policy led to production cuts in over - capacity industries. The domestic coal chemical industry rose rapidly, with coking coal futures rising by 60% at most and coke futures rising by 32% at most. The methanol futures 2509 contract rose by 7.36% at most. After nearly a month of rise, the coal chemical futures sector declined as the policy expectation was digested [11]. 3.2 Chapter 1: Methanol Oscillates Downward, and the Month - spread Discount Widens - With the digestion of the "anti - involution" policy and the implementation of the Politburo meeting, the coal futures prices declined, and the cost support for methanol collapsed. Last week, the methanol futures 2509 contract declined from 2521 yuan/ton to 2393 yuan/ton, a weekly decline of 5.00%. This week, it continued to be weak, reaching 2373 yuan/ton at one point. The 9 - 1 month spread widened to 97 yuan/ton, showing the weakness of the near - month contract [12]. 3.3 Chapter 2: Policy Bullish Expectation is Fulfilled, and Coal Adjusts - The Politburo meeting on July 30 provided long - term support for coal prices by strengthening the expectation of supply contraction. The monetary policy helped reduce the production cost of coking enterprises. Since coal is the main raw material for methanol and accounts for over 70% of the domestic methanol production process, the methanol price was also affected. After the bullish expectation was fulfilled, the coal futures declined, and the cost support for methanol collapsed [14][15]. 3.4 Chapter 3: The Profit Margin of Domestic Coal - to - Methanol Production Shrinks Significantly - In August, the production profit margin of domestic coal - to - methanol enterprises declined. As of August 1, the cost profit margin of coal - to - methanol in Northwest China was about 23.29%, a week - on - week decrease of 13.24%; in Shandong, it was about 12.29%, a week - on - week decrease of 13.66%; in Inner Mongolia, it was about 16.28%, a week - on - week decrease of 13.97% [16]. 3.5 Chapter 4: The Domestic Methanol Supply Pressure Continues to Increase - In July 2025, although there were concentrated maintenance in domestic methanol production areas, the domestic methanol price did not improve significantly due to the high inventory of the middle and lower reaches. The average domestic methanol operating rate was 81.92% as of August 1, 2025, slightly increasing week - on - week, slightly decreasing month - on - month, and significantly increasing year - on - year. The weekly methanol output was 193.02 million tons, slightly increasing week - on - week, significantly decreasing month - on - month, and significantly increasing year - on - year. Considering the new installations to be put into operation in the second half of the year, the supply pressure is expected to remain high [24]. 3.6 Chapter 5: More Overseas Methanol Ships Arrive at Ports, and the Import Pressure Increases - In the third quarter, the import expectation in August 2025 was significantly raised. It is estimated that the import supply will exceed 1.35 million tons, with about 750,000 tons from Iran and over 600,000 tons from non - Iranian sources. The overall overseas inventory is high, and the spot demand in Europe, India, and Southeast Asia is weak. Spot from non - Iranian Middle East, Southeast Asia, and Europe is being shipped to China. If there is no increase in MTO load and no good restocking demand in the inland before the peak season, the port inventory may accumulate rapidly [25]. 3.7 Chapter 6: Downstream Consumption is in the Off - season, and the Weak Demand Factor is Prominent - Since the third quarter, the traditional and olefin demand for domestic methanol has weakened. As of August 1, 2025, the operating rate of formaldehyde was 28.55%, slightly increasing week - on - week; the operating rate of dimethyl ether was 5.72%, slightly increasing week - on - week; the operating rate of acetic acid was 88.79%, slightly decreasing week - on - week; the operating rate of MTBE was 54.84%, slightly decreasing week - on - week. The average operating load of coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 75.72%, slightly decreasing week - on - week and month - on - month. The futures profit margin of methanol to olefin was - 87 yuan/ton, significantly increasing week - on - week and slightly increasing month - on - month [29]. 3.8 Chapter 7: The Supply - Demand Structure Weakens, and Port Inventory Accumulation Intensifies - In July, the inland methanol inventory decreased slightly, with the inventory at 324,700 tons as of July 31, 2025, a week - on - week decrease of 15,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 16,900 tons, and a significant year - on - year decrease of 75,600 tons. However, due to more overseas imports and weak domestic downstream demand, the port inventory accumulation pressure was obvious. As of August 1, 2025, the port methanol inventory in East and South China was 650,300 tons, a week - on - week increase of 63,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 150,600 tons, and a significant year - on - year decrease of 158,000 tons [41]. 3.9 Chapter 8: Summary - With the digestion of the macro - optimistic expectation, the bullish sentiment in the domestic commodity futures market weakened, and the coal futures prices declined, dragging down the methanol futures prices. The supply pressure of methanol at home and abroad is still high, and the downstream demand is in the off - season. The weak supply - demand structure may lead to a downward shift in the price center. The domestic methanol futures 2509 contract is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend [43].