Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The signals released by the 7.30 meeting fell short of expectations, causing significant short - term adjustments in the screw and ore futures markets. The short - term demand for rebar is affected by seasonality and has weakened, with inventory slightly increasing. After the policy expectations are fulfilled, the short - term driving logic of rebar may return to fundamentals, and the short - term futures market is expected to be weak under technical adjustments and off - season pressure. - The short - term import ore shipping volume has increased slightly, and the arrival volume is expected to gradually increase in the future. The port inventory will face certain pressure. On the demand side, the daily average molten iron volume continues to decrease slightly, and the steel mill's daily consumption has also declined. Steel mills continue the replenishment strategy in the short term. It is expected that the short - term iron ore futures market will follow the rebar trend and remain weak [4][6][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Rebar - Futures: The rebar 10 contract adjusted significantly under the reduction of long - position main force. As of Friday, it closed at 3203 yuan/ton, down 153 yuan from last week, a weekly decline of 4.56% [4]. - Spot: The prices of mainstream rebar regions generally decreased significantly, and the overall trading weakened. As of Friday, the national average rebar price dropped 76 yuan to 3395 yuan/ton, with different price drops in various regions [4]. - Fundamentals - Supply: The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills in the country was 83.46%, unchanged from the previous week and up 2.18% year - on - year; the blast furnace ironmaking capacity utilization rate was 90.24%, down 0.57% from the previous week and up 1.37% year - on - year; the average operating rate of 90 electric furnace steel mills in the country was 74.21%, up 2.18% from the previous week and up 12.75% year - on - year; the average electric furnace capacity utilization rate was 57.05%, up 1.56% from the previous week and up 15.11% year - on - year. The weekly rebar output decreased by 0.9 tons to 211.06 tons, still at a low level year - on - year [4]. - Short - process steel mills: The estimated cost of electric furnaces in East China is 3215 yuan, down 15 yuan from the previous week. The electric furnace profit of rebar is a loss of 145 yuan, with the loss narrowing by 5 yuan from last week. The operating rate and capacity utilization rate of electric furnaces in the country continued to rise, with a slightly narrower increase [4]. - Long - process steel mills: The estimated cost of crude steel in East China is 2817 yuan, up 11 yuan from the previous week. The blast furnace profit of rebar is 253 yuan, narrowing by 21 yuan from last week. The domestic blast furnace operating rate did not change significantly, while the capacity utilization rate continued to decrease slightly. With the implementation of policy expectations, the price decline of finished products was more significant than that of raw materials, and the fourth round of coke price increase was implemented, resulting in a slight contraction of long - process steel mill profits [4]. - Demand and Inventory - Demand: The building materials trading volume and rebar apparent consumption both decreased slightly. The 5 - day average building materials trading volume decreased by 0.99 tons to 10.02 tons, and the rebar apparent consumption decreased by 13.17 tons to 203.41 tons, still at a low level in the same period [7]. - Inventory: The inventory of five major steel products and rebar began to accumulate slightly. As of Friday, the total rebar inventory increased by 7.65 tons to 546.29 tons, still at a low level in the same period; the social rebar inventory increased by 11.17 tons to 384.14 tons, and the factory inventory decreased by 3.52 tons to 162.15 tons [7]. - Basis: As of Friday, the lowest warehouse receipt quotation for rebar in Shanghai was 3360 yuan/ton, with a premium of 157 yuan over the rebar 10 contract, widening by 83 yuan from last week. The rebar basis is near the average, and it is expected that the rebar basis is more likely to continue to widen [7]. - Comprehensive Judgment: The short - term rebar futures market is expected to be weak under technical adjustments and off - season pressure [7]. Iron Ore - Futures: The iron ore 09 contract continued the adjustment trend under the reduction of long - position main force. As of Friday, it closed at 783.0 yuan/ton, down 19.5 yuan/ton from last week, a weekly decline of 2.43% [7]. - Spot: The prices of mainstream imported ore varieties generally decreased slightly, while the prices of domestic iron concentrate began to decline steadily. The overall trading was average [7]. - Fundamentals - Supply: As of July 28, the total shipping volume of Australian and Brazilian iron ore was 2755.9 tons, an increase of 203.9 tons from the previous week. The shipping volume from Australia was 1859.6 tons, an increase of 230.2 tons, and the volume shipped to China was 1550.4 tons, an increase of 106.8 tons. The shipping volume from Brazil was 896.4 tons, a decrease of 26.2 tons. The 45 - port arrival volume was 2240.5 tons, a decrease of 130.7 tons; the arrival volume at six northern ports was 1157.3 tons, a decrease of 231.9 tons [9]. - Demand: The current daily average port clearance volume of 45 ports is 302.71 tons, a decrease of 12.44 tons from the previous week; the weekly average trading volume of port - spot iron ore is 96.64 tons, an increase of 0.6 tons; the daily average molten iron output of 247 steel mills is 240.71 tons, a decrease of 1.52 tons from last week and an increase of 4.09 tons compared to last year; the daily consumption of imported ore by 247 steel mills is 299.46 tons, a decrease of 1.65 tons [9]. - Inventory: As of August 1, the 45 - port iron ore inventory began to decrease slightly, currently at 13657.90 tons, a decrease of 132.48 tons. The imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel mills is 9012.09 tons, an increase of 126.87 tons [9]. - Basis: As of Friday, the Newman powder at Qingdao Port, the optimal delivery product, was 807 yuan/ton, with a premium of 24 yuan over the continuous iron 10 contract, widening by 5 yuan from last week. The iron ore basis is at the average level, and it is expected that the iron ore basis is more likely to continue to widen [9]. - Comprehensive Judgment: The short - term iron ore futures market is expected to follow the rebar trend and remain weak [9].
7.30政策不及市场预期，螺矿盘面短期大幅调整
Cai Da Qi Huo·2025-08-04 11:43