尿素周报：关注秋季肥及出口兑现情况-20250804

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the domestic urea spot market price showed a weak trend. In August, there will be both maintenance and restart of urea production facilities, and the daily output is expected to fluctuate around 19 - 20 million tons [4]. - The inventory of upstream urea enterprises increased compared to the previous period, while the port inventory decreased to 493,000 tons, indicating that the export performance was below expectations [4]. - The demand for agricultural top - dressing has ended. Although the production start - up of autumn compound fertilizers has increased, the finished product inventory still faces significant pressure [4]. - In the short term, affected by weak supply - demand and the overall correction in the commodity market, the urea futures price will continue to fluctuate at a low level. However, there is an expected improvement in autumn fertilizers and potential support from exports. The UR2509 contract should pay attention to the support around 1,680 - 1,700 yuan/ton, and subsequent attention should be paid to whether autumn fertilizers can bring a phased rebound opportunity [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Viewpoint Summary - Supply: Recently, there have been many maintenance facilities, and the supply has decreased significantly [4]. - Demand: The demand for agricultural top - dressing has ended, and attention should be paid to the production of autumn fertilizers [4]. - Inventory: The inventory of upstream urea enterprises increased from a decreasing trend, and the port inventory decreased [4]. - Cost and Profit: Coal prices are stable with a slight upward trend, and urea profits decreased compared to the previous period [4]. - Basis and Spread: The 9 - 1 spread is running weakly, and the 09 basis has limited changes [4]. 3.2 Variety Details Decomposition - Market Price: The domestic urea market price is running weakly, and international urea prices are showing mixed trends [6][10]. - Supply: Recently, there are many maintenance facilities, and the supply has decreased significantly. The weekly urea output is 1.3548 million tons (+0.01%), including 1.0451 million tons of coal - based urea output (-1.62%) and 309,700 tons of gas - based urea output (+5.92%), with an average daily output of 194,000 tons [16][20]. - Inventory: The urea enterprise inventory is 917,300 tons, a week - on - week increase of 58,500 tons. The port inventory is 493,000 tons (a week - on - week decrease of 50,000 tons). The mainstream pre - collection days of urea enterprises are 6.12 days (a week - on - week increase of 3.03%), and the number of days of orders to be delivered by enterprises has increased slightly [31]. - Demand: The operating rate of compound fertilizer enterprises is 38.68% (+5.10%), and the finished product inventory is 777,200 tons (a week - on - week increase of 35,100 tons). The operating rate of compound fertilizer enterprises has increased significantly, and the finished product inventory continues to accumulate. The operating rate of melamine is 63.50% (-1.70%), with a slight decline, and downstream procurement is based on rigid demand [34]. - Raw Material: Coal prices are stable with a slight upward trend [36]. - Profit: Urea profits decreased slightly compared to the previous period [42]. - Spread Analysis: The 9 - 1 spread is running weakly, and the 09 basis has limited changes [45].