证券研究报告、晨会聚焦-20250804

Core Insights - The new bond value-added tax regulation is expected to have a static impact of approximately 0.4% on the annual revenue of listed banks, with a profit impact of around 0.95% [13][15][16] - The regulation will lead to increased tax costs for banks as investors in newly issued bonds, while also raising interest expenses for banks as issuers of financial bonds [14][15] - The report recommends continued investment in the banking sector, highlighting the shift from "pro-cyclical" to "weak-cyclical" stocks, with a focus on the stability and sustainability of bank stocks [13][16] Summary by Sections Impact of New Tax Regulation - The new tax regulation aims to adjust fund allocation, optimize the pricing mechanism of the bond market, and deepen fiscal and tax reforms [14] - Short-term effects include banks realizing floating profits through OCI to offset the impact of rising tax costs, while long-term effects may lead to a greater emphasis on enhancing trading capabilities [14][15] Revenue and Profit Impact - Static calculations indicate that the new tax will increase tax costs by approximately 232 million yuan annually, affecting revenue by about 0.4% and pre-tax profit by around 0.95% [15] - The transition from new bonds to old bonds is expected to take five years, with cumulative tax cost increases projected to reach 1.439 billion yuan by 2029, accounting for about 2.7% of the forecasted revenue for 2025 [15] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on banks with regional advantages and strong certainty, particularly in areas like Jiangsu, Shanghai, Chengdu, Shandong, and Fujian, recommending banks such as Jiangsu Bank and Hangzhou Bank [16] - It also highlights the importance of high-dividend, stable banks, including the six major banks and select joint-stock banks like China Merchants Bank and Industrial Bank [16]