贵金属日报-20250804

Report Investment Rating - Gold: ★★★, indicating a clearer long trend with a relatively appropriate current investment opportunity [1] - Silver: ★★★, indicating a clearer long trend with a relatively appropriate current investment opportunity [1] Core View - After the rise of precious metals on Friday, they are oscillating today. Market concerns about the authenticity of US economic data and the economic outlook have intensified. Traders have fully priced in two Fed rate cuts by the end of the year, and the probability of a September rate cut has risen to 90%. With geopolitical tensions easing and tariff policies being implemented, the market focus has shifted to the US economy and rate cut prospects. In the oscillating trend of precious metals, the idea of buying on dips is maintained [1] Summary by Related Content US Economic Data - US July non - farm payrolls increased by 73,000, far lower than the expected 110,000, with the previous two months' data revised down by 258,000 jobs, and the unemployment rate rose 0.1 percentage points to 4.2%. The July ISM manufacturing PMI unexpectedly dropped to 48, the lowest since October 2024 [2] Trump's Statements - Trump claimed that the non - farm employment data was manipulated and ordered the dismissal of the Bureau of Labor Statistics director. He also ordered the deployment of two nuclear submarines in response to Medvedev's remarks, and made various statements about the Fed's rate cut and Powell's position [2] Fed Officials' Views - Williams is open to a September rate cut, focusing on the significant downward revisions of May and June non - farm data. Waller and Bowman mentioned labor market weakness in their responses to opposing the non - rate - cut decision. Harker thought the employment report was "disappointing" but didn't mean a rate cut last week. Bostic still expects one rate cut this year, believing inflation risk is greater than employment risk [2]