财达期货铜周报：铜价短期震荡偏弱-20250804

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The raw material shortage and low inventory can support the copper price from falling, but currently it is still in the off - season with no obvious upward momentum. Uncertainty from the ongoing trade negotiations between the US and other countries suppresses the copper price. It is expected that the copper price will show a weak and volatile trend in the short term due to macro - economic factors [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Supply and Demand - Some smelters are still in a loss state, and the processing fee remains in the negative range. The orders of the enameled wire industry were stable last week, and the new orders increased by 1.68 percentage points week - on - week at the end of the week, pushing the operating rate up to 78.2%. The SMM refined copper rod enterprise operating rate rose to 71.73%, a 2.37% increase week - on - week [4]. - The total production schedule of air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines in August 2025 is 26.97 million units, a 4.9% decrease compared to the actual production in the same period last year. The downstream demand for enameled wire from the home appliance terminal has significantly decreased [4]. - Global visible inventory has started to rise, while domestic electrolytic copper inventory has slightly declined due to limited arrivals [4]. 3.2 Macro - economic Factors - The Fed decided not to cut interest rates in July, which was in line with market expectations. However, the post - meeting statement and subsequent non - farm payroll data that fell short of expectations increased the market's expectation of an interest rate cut in September [4]. - US President Trump signed an announcement to impose a 50% tariff on imported semi - finished copper products and copper - intensive derivatives starting from August 1st. COMEX copper prices plunged after the news, and LME copper prices followed slightly [4]. - China and the US agreed to extend the 24% reciprocal tariff for 90 days, but no new breakthrough agreement was reached [4]. 3.3 Market Review Last week, the main contract of Shanghai copper maintained a weak trend. On Thursday, it followed the decline of COMEX copper due to the US copper tariff news. The closing price on Friday was 78,400 yuan/ton, about 1% lower than the previous week [6].