高存栏背景下旺季可能难旺

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the egg industry this month is bearish [3]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This year, under the background of high inventory, the pace of capacity reduction is significantly insufficient, so the traditional peak consumption season for eggs may not see a strong price increase [3]. - The current high price difference between large - and small - sized eggs, along with the strong price of culled hens, indicates more new additions and fewer eliminations, which may suppress the price elasticity during the traditional consumption peak season [3]. - The acceptance of high - priced eggs in the terminal market is low, and high - temperature and high - humidity weather restricts circulation efficiency, leading to a slowdown in the movement of eggs in the production areas [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price and Volume Analysis - This month, the egg basis has risen significantly, and the near - month futures contracts are slightly at a discount. The spread between near - and far - term egg futures has decreased significantly and is at a medium level. From a position perspective, the institutional net position of the main egg futures contract shows a bearish and volatile state [3]. Supply Analysis - The price of culled hens from sample breeding enterprises has risen significantly this month, and the average age of culled hens has decreased. The price of chicks has continued to decline, indicating an increase in new supplies and a decrease in eliminations [3]. Demand Analysis - This month, the sales volume in the main sales areas and the shipping volume in the main production areas have increased slightly. The inventory in the circulation and production links first decreased and then increased, reaching a high level compared to the same period in history. The terminal market's acceptance of high - priced eggs is low, and the enthusiasm of traders to purchase has declined [3]. Profit Analysis - This month, the breeding profit first declined and then rose, and is currently around the break - even point. The egg - feed price ratio and its equilibrium point are also analyzed [3]. Strategy - The strategy is bearish. As the futures price has rapidly caught up with the decline, the premium on the futures has been repaired to near par. It is expected to follow the spot price later, but due to high inventory this year, the peak season may not be prosperous. Short - term trading is advised to wait and see [3].