固收专题：如何定量测算票息增值税政策对债市的影响

Group 1 - The report highlights the adjustment of the value-added tax policy on interest income from government bonds, which will be reinstated for new issues starting from August 8, 2025, while existing bonds will remain exempt until maturity [1][8][10] - The adjustment aims to enhance the pricing mechanism of the bond market and better establish the benchmark role of government bond rates, reflecting the government's commitment to tax reform and market development [1][10][12] - The current bond market size is reported at 189.76 trillion yuan, with government bonds accounting for 38.02 trillion yuan, local government bonds for 52.51 trillion yuan, and financial bonds for 42.34 trillion yuan [10][12] Group 2 - Public funds will maintain a tax advantage post-policy adjustment, which is expected to increase demand for self-operated and outsourced investments by banks, particularly in government and local bonds [2][12][14] - The effective tax rates post-adjustment are calculated at 3.26% for public funds and 6.34% for bank self-operated investments, necessitating a yield compensation of 4-8 basis points for public funds and 8-15 basis points for banks on newly issued bonds [2][14][24] - The report anticipates that the market will experience short-term fluctuations as investors adjust to the new tax implications, with potential downward pressure on existing bond yields and upward adjustments on new bond coupon rates [3][17][26] Group 3 - The adjustment is expected to influence the pricing of government bond futures, with new issues potentially requiring higher yields to become the cheapest-to-deliver (CTD) bonds [4][26] - The report indicates that the difficulty of new bonds becoming CTD will vary across different futures contracts, with certain contracts being more affected than others [4][26][27] - The analysis includes detailed calculations of the tax implications for various investor types, illustrating the differences in effective tax burdens before and after the policy change [21][22][24]