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国富期货早间看点-20250804
Guo Fu Qi Huo·2025-08-04 12:18

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report presents a comprehensive overview of the futures market on August 4, 2025, covering overnight and spot market quotes, important fundamental information, macro - economic news, capital flows, and arbitrage tracking. It focuses on the performance of various commodities such as palm oil, soybeans, and crude oil, as well as international and domestic economic indicators. 3. Summary by Directory Overnight Quotes - The closing price of BMD Malaysian palm oil in October was 4,245.00, with a previous day's increase of 0.35%. Brent crude oil in October on ICE was at 69.52, a decrease of 3.15% the previous day and 0.20% overnight. NYMEX US crude oil in September was at 67.26, down 3.03% the previous day and 0.06% overnight [1]. - The US dollar index was at 98.67, a decrease of 1.32%. The exchange rates of various currencies against the US dollar showed different trends, with the Malaysian ringgit, Indonesian rupiah, Brazilian real, and Singapore dollar appreciating, while the Argentine peso depreciated [1]. Spot Quotes - For DCE palm oil 2509, the spot prices in North China, East China, and South China were 9,040, 8,910, and 8,900 respectively, with corresponding basis values of 120, - 10, and - 20, and basis changes of - 10, - 40, and 0 [2]. - For DCE soybean oil 2509, the spot prices in Shandong, Jiangsu, Guangdong, and Tianjin were 8,300, 8,520, 8,460, and 8,390 respectively, with basis values and changes varying by region [2]. - For DCE soybean meal 2509, the spot prices in Shandong, Jiangsu, Guangdong, and Tianjin were 2,890, 2,890, 2,870, and 2,970 respectively, with corresponding basis values and changes [2]. - The CNF quotes for imported soybeans from Brazil and Argentina were 474 and 452 dollars per ton respectively, with CNF premiums of 300 and 240 cents per bushel [2]. Important Fundamental Information - Weather in Production Areas: US soybean - producing states are expected to have above - average temperatures from August 6 - 10, with more precipitation in the northwest and northeast. The weather in the US Midwest is currently favorable for corn and soybean growth, with occasional rainfall and temperature fluctuations [3][5]. - International Supply and Demand: In July 2025, Malaysian palm oil production increased by 7.07% according to SPPOMA. Indonesia exported 2.07 million tons of crude palm oil and its products in June. There were also changes in the positions of various agricultural products futures, US soybean crushing volume, Canadian rapeseed exports, and Nigeria's plan to double soybean planting area by 2027 [9][10][11]. - Domestic Supply and Demand: On August 1, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil increased by 31% compared to the previous day. There were also changes in the trading volume and开机 rate of soybean meal, soybean crushing volume, Brazilian soybean shipping plans to China, pig - breeding profits, and agricultural product wholesale prices [14][15]. Macro - economic News - International News: US economic data in July showed mixed results, with lower - than - expected non - farm payrolls, slightly higher unemployment rate, and inflation expectations. The ISM and S&P Global manufacturing PMIs also had different performances. There were discussions about OPEC+ production increases [18][20]. - Domestic News: On August 1, the US dollar/Chinese yuan exchange rate was adjusted upwards. The Chinese central bank carried out reverse - repurchase operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of funds on the day and a net injection for the week. Newly - issued government bond interest income will be subject to VAT starting from August 8 [22]. Capital Flows - On August 1, 2025, the futures market had a net capital outflow of 9.63 billion yuan, with 1.091 billion yuan from commodity futures (697 million yuan inflow in agricultural product futures, 140 million yuan inflow in chemical futures, 1.293 billion yuan outflow in black - series futures, and 635 million yuan outflow in metal futures) and 8.539 billion yuan from stock - index futures [25]. - The capital flows of major futures varieties varied, with inflows in some commodities like soybean oil and gold, and outflows in others such as crude oil and copper [24]. Arbitrage Tracking No relevant information provided.