农产品日报-20250804

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Beans 1: ☆☆☆ - Soybean Meal: ☆☆☆ - Soybean Oil: ☆☆☆ - Palm Oil: ☆☆☆ - Rapeseed Meal: ☆☆☆ - Rapeseed Oil: ☆☆☆ - Corn: ★★★ - Live Hogs: ★☆☆ - Eggs: ★☆☆ [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - For most agricultural products, short - term attention should be paid to weather and policy impacts. In the case of unclear tariff issues, the market for related products is mainly in a state of shock. For soybean - related products, there is a possibility of a good harvest in the United States this year. For some products like live hogs and eggs, there are corresponding trends in price changes and investment suggestions [2][3][7][8] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Beans 1 - Currently, soybeans in Heilongjiang and Inner Mongolia are in the pod - setting stage. Precipitation in the Northeast this week is beneficial to soybean growth. The price of the main contract of Beans 1 is weak, and the price difference with Beans 2 has narrowed. Imported soybeans are also weak in the short - term due to good weather [2] 3.2 Soybeans & Soybean Meal - Trump's new tariff policy will take effect at zero o'clock on August 7th US time, but Sino - US tariffs have not been announced. The oil mill's weekly crushing volume remains above 2 million tons, and the soybean meal inventory has reached about 1 million tons. Before the tariff issue is clear, the soybean meal market is in a shock state [2] 3.3 Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - The price of US soybeans is weak, and there is a high probability of a good harvest this year. According to historical trends, there is a probability that Chinese soybean oil will strengthen in the medium - term. The short - term supply - demand of Malaysian palm oil is weak. The domestic soybean - palm oil price difference has strengthened, and soybean oil is stronger than palm oil. It is recommended to buy on dips for soybean oil and palm oil [3] 3.4 Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - The focus of the rapeseed market is on Sino - Canadian economic and trade relations. The inventory of rapeseed oil in China remains basically the same as last week, and the combined inventory of coastal oil mills and imported granular meal continues to decline. The domestic rapeseed futures price is expected to be in a shock state [5] 3.5 Corn - As of August 1st, CGS has conducted 10 auctions of imported corn, totaling about 2.4896 million tons, but the transaction rate and premium have been declining. The Dalian corn futures may continue to be weak at the bottom [6] 3.6 Live Hogs - The spot price of live hogs continues to decline in a shock state. The futures price of near - month contracts is under pressure. The futures of live hogs may have reached the peak, and it is recommended that the industry conduct hedging on rallies [7] 3.7 Eggs - The 09 - contract of eggs has fallen sharply. The inventory of laying hens in July continues to increase. If the egg price can complete capacity reduction through price decline in the second half of this year, the egg price cycle may reverse next year. It is recommended to use the reverse arbitrage idea [8]