7月政治局会议解读：政策连续稳定，经济稳中求进

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The economic situation judgment is optimistically cautious, with the macro - policy emphasizing continuity and stability, and leaving room for policy adjustment. The "15th Five - Year Plan" is set to play a crucial role in China's modernization process [7]. - Monetary policy remains moderately loose, with a possibility of reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts. Structural tools are emphasized for targeted support [8]. - Fiscal policy is more proactive, with accelerated implementation of existing policies and potential new policies in consumption, technology, and foreign trade [14]. - The mid - term bond market yield is expected to continue its downward trend despite recent upward fluctuations [18]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Economic Situation and "15th Five - Year Plan" - The current macro - economy is stable with progress but still faces challenges. Macro - policies aim to maintain the upward trend, with a focus on stabilizing employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations [7]. - The "15th Five - Year Plan" is a key stage for China's modernization, with a dual mission of connecting the "14th Five - Year Plan" and the 2035 vision [7]. 3.2 Monetary Policy - The moderate - loose tone of monetary policy remains unchanged. The focus shifts to the priority of structural tools over aggregate ones, with an emphasis on guiding funds to the real economy [8]. - There is a possibility of interest rate cuts in the second half of the year due to factors such as the differentiated structural economic recovery, expected Fed rate cuts, and historical rate - cut rhythms [10][12]. 3.3 Fiscal Policy - Fiscal policy remains proactive, with a focus on accelerating the issuance and use of government bonds and ensuring the bottom - line of "Three Guarantees" at the grassroots level [14]. - In the second half of the year, the implementation of existing fiscal policies will accelerate, and new policies may be introduced to support consumption, technology, and foreign trade [17]. 3.4 Bond Market - The recent rise in bond yields is due to the resonance of economic fundamentals, policy, and capital factors. The 10 - year Treasury bond yield rose from about 1.65% to 1.75% in mid - to late July [18]. - Considering the policy's emphasis on continuity and stability and the economic weak - recovery reality, the mid - term bond yield is expected to continue its downward trend [18][19].