中原期货纯碱玻璃周报-20250804

Report Title - "Soda Ash and Glass Weekly Report - 2025.08.04" [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views Soda Ash - Short - term soda ash futures prices may fluctuate weakly. In the medium - to - long - term, considering the new production capacity, there is still pressure on the supply - demand balance, and opportunities to short on rebounds can be considered when macro disturbances weaken [5] Glass - Glass futures prices may continue to operate in a wide - range oscillation. Attention should be paid to the impact of macro policies and cold repair of production lines [6] Summary by Directory 1. Weekly View Summary Soda Ash - Supply: The comprehensive capacity utilization rate is 80.27% (down 2.75% week - on - week), with ammonia - alkali at 86.41% (down 1.29% week - on - week) and co - production at 67.86% (down 4.40% week - on - week). Weekly output is 69.98 tons (down 2.40 tons week - on - week), with light soda ash at 30.11 tons (down 1.38 tons) and heavy soda ash at 39.87 tons (down 1.02 tons) [5][25][33] - Demand: Apparent demand is 76.86 tons (up 0.38 tons week - on - week), with light soda ash at 35.03 tons (down 0.54 tons) and heavy soda ash at 41.83 tons (up 0.92 tons) [5] - Inventory: Enterprise inventory is 179.58 tons (up 1.22 tons), with light soda ash at 69.30 tons (down 0.21 tons) and heavy soda ash at 110.28 tons (up 1.43 tons) [5] Glass - Supply: The daily melting volume of float glass is 15.96 tons (up 0.38% compared to the 24th), with 222 production lines in operation and 74 cold - repaired. The daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass is 8.65 tons (down 1.37% week - on - week and 22.97% year - on - year) [6][44] - Inventory: The total inventory of float glass sample enterprises is 5949.9 million weight cases (down 239.7 million weight cases week - on - week, down 3.87% week - on - week and 13.88% year - on - year), equivalent to 25.5 days of inventory (down 1.1 days) [6][48] - Demand: As of July 31, 2025, the average order days of deep - processing sample enterprises is 9.55 days (up 2.7% week - on - week and down 1.55% year - on - year) [6][48] 2. Variety Details Decomposition 2.1 Market Review - Spot Prices - Soda ash: In central China, the market price of heavy soda ash is 1350 yuan/ton, and that of light soda ash is 1280 yuan/ton, with a price difference of 70 yuan/ton. In northern China, the market price of heavy soda ash is 1400 yuan/ton, and that of light soda ash is 1300 yuan/ton, with a price difference of 100 yuan/ton [11] - Futures: As of July 31, 2025, the basis of soda ash in the Shahe area is 0 yuan/ton (up 10 yuan/ton week - on - week); the basis of glass is - 29 yuan/ton (up 202 yuan/ton week - on - week) [14] 2.1 Market Review - Spread - As of July 31, 2025, the 9 - 1 spread of soda ash is - 78 yuan/ton (down 1 yuan/ton week - on - week); the 9 - 1 spread of glass is - 107 yuan/ton (down 12 yuan/ton week - on - week); the glass - soda ash arbitrage spread is 130 yuan/ton (up 29 yuan/ton week - on - week) [19] 2.2 Fundamental - Supply - Soda ash: With the resumption of production of maintenance devices, supply is expected to increase. The comprehensive capacity utilization rate is 80.27% (down 2.75% week - on - week), ammonia - alkali at 86.41% (down 1.29% week - on - week), and co - production at 67.86% (down 4.40% week - on - week) [25][33] - Glass: The daily melting volume of float glass is 15.96 tons (up 0.38% compared to the 24th), and the daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass is 8.65 tons (down 1.37% week - on - week and 22.97% year - on - year) [44] 2.3 Fundamental - Inventory - Soda ash: Enterprise inventory is 179.58 tons (up 1.22 tons), with light soda ash at 69.30 tons (down 0.21 tons) and heavy soda ash at 110.28 tons (up 1.43 tons) [37] - Glass: The total inventory of float glass sample enterprises is 5949.9 million weight cases (down 239.7 million weight cases week - on - week, down 3.87% week - on - week and 13.88% year - on - year), equivalent to 25.5 days of inventory (down 1.1 days) [48]