国投期货化工日报-20250804

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bearish bias with limited trading opportunities) [1] - Methanol: ★☆☆ [1] - Pure Benzene: ★☆☆ [1] - Styrene: ★☆☆ [1] - Polypropylene: ★★☆ (Two stars, indicating a clear bearish trend with ongoing market movement) [1] - Plastic: ★★☆ [1] - PVC: ★☆☆ [1] - Caustic Soda: ★☆☆ [1] - PX: ★★☆ [1] - PTA: ★★☆ [1] - Short Fiber: ★☆☆ [1] - Glass: ★★☆ [1] - Soda Ash: ★☆☆ [1] - Bottle Chip: ★★☆ [1] - Propylene: ★★☆ [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★☆☆ [1] Core Views - The overall chemical market shows a mixed trend with some products facing downward pressure due to factors such as supply-demand imbalances, seasonal effects, and external market influences [2][3][5][6][7][8]. - Different chemical products have unique supply and demand situations, which affect their price trends and investment opportunities [2][3][5][6][7][8]. Section Summaries Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures showed a volatile trend, with prices likely to decline due to relatively abundant supply and limited demand support [2]. - Polyolefin futures declined. PE supply remained stable with some demand improvement in the agricultural film sector, while PP faced a seasonal demand slump and weakening market support [2]. Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene futures continued to be weak, but the market pressure is expected to ease in the third quarter, with a recommendation for monthly spread trading [3]. - Styrene futures fluctuated narrowly, with supply pressure outweighing demand growth, leading to a weak price trend [3]. Polyester - PX and PTA prices declined, with PTA facing supply pressure and a need for cost-driven price recovery in the short term and potential valuation improvement in the medium term [5]. - Ethylene glycol prices continued to fall, with increasing supply and weakening demand [5]. - Short fiber and bottle chip prices followed the raw material decline. Short fiber may benefit from seasonal demand recovery, while bottle chip faces long - term overcapacity issues [5]. Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol prices continued to fall, with short - term coastal inventory accumulation and a potential improvement in the medium term due to seasonal demand [6]. - Urea prices are expected to fluctuate weakly, affected by seasonal demand gaps and policy uncertainties [6]. Chlor - Alkali - PVC prices showed a weak trend, with high supply and low demand leading to inventory accumulation [7]. - Caustic soda prices were under pressure, with high - load production and limited non - aluminum demand [7]. Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash prices weakened as the industry started to accumulate inventory, with supply - demand pressure remaining [8]. - Glass prices were weak, with a slowdown in sales and inventory accumulation [8].