库存缓降难提振，乙二醇成本端坍塌拖累盘面

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report suggests that the ethylene glycol market may be in a volatile pattern. Although the inventory decline and cost - end profit situation may limit the downside, the lack of obvious growth in demand and the decrease in trading volume and positions mean there is no driving force for an upward trend. Therefore, it may fluctuate within a range in the short term [25][26]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Market Summary - 主力合约与基差: On August 1st, the ethylene glycol futures main - contract price closed at 4,439 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan from the previous trading day, showing a volatile downward trend in the past five days. The East China spot price dropped by 5 yuan to 4,480 yuan/ton, and the basis widened from 49 yuan to 51 yuan. The inter - period spread structure was divided, with the 5 - 9 spread widening by 13 yuan to 49 yuan and the 1 - 5 spread widening by 6 yuan to - 15 yuan [2]. - 持仓与成交: The trading volume and open interest of the main contract decreased simultaneously. The trading volume decreased by 19.17% to 110,300 lots, and the open interest dropped by 6,030 lots to 239,400 lots, indicating a decline in market participation and short - term trading drive [3]. - 供给端: The total ethylene glycol operating rate increased slightly by 0.1% to 63.09%, but there was an obvious structural difference. The oil - based operating rate rose by 2.2 percentage points to 66.15%, while the coal - based operating rate dropped by 3 percentage points to 58.48%. All production processes were in the red, with the oil - based profit at - 119.9 dollars/ton and the coal - based profit stably at - 200 yuan/ton [4]. - 需求端: The load of polyester factories and Jiangsu - Zhejiang looms remained stable at 89.42% and 63.43% respectively, and terminal demand showed no seasonal fluctuations. Weaving enterprises mainly made rigid purchases [5]. - 库存端: The inventory at the East China main port decreased for two consecutive weeks, down 4.8 tons to 42.72 tons, a decline of 10.06%. The inventory in Zhangjiagang dropped by 13.5% to 12.8 tons. Although the arrival volume increased slightly to 16.87 tons, the improvement in port shipping efficiency promoted inventory clearance, and short - term spot circulation pressure was relieved [6]. 3.2 Industry Chain Price Monitoring - 期货与现货价格: The main - contract price of ethylene glycol futures decreased by 0.05% to 4,439 yuan/ton, and the East China spot price dropped by 0.11% to 4,480 yuan/ton. The basis decreased by 16.33% [7]. - 价差情况: The 5 - 9 spread widened by 36.11% to 49 yuan/ton, while the 1 - 5 spread widened by 66.67% to - 15 yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread decreased by 25.93% to - 34 yuan/ton [7]. - 利润情况: The naphtha - based profit decreased by 2.50% to - 123 dollars/ton, the ethylene - based profit decreased by 2.36% to - 712 yuan/ton, and the coal - based profit decreased by 12.00% to - 224 yuan/ton [7]. - 开工负荷: The overall ethylene glycol operating rate increased by 0.21% to 63.1%, the coal - based operating rate decreased by 4.93% to 58.5%, and the oil - based operating rate increased by 3.46% to 66.2%. The load of polyester factories and Jiangsu - Zhejiang looms remained unchanged [7]. - 库存与到港量: The East China main - port inventory decreased by 10.06% to 42.7 tons, the Zhangjiagang inventory decreased by 13.51% to 12.8 tons, and the arrival volume increased by 6.10% to 16.87 tons [7]. 3.3 Industry Dynamics and Interpretation - On August 1st, the price of the East China US - dollar market moved down in the morning and fluctuated slightly in the afternoon, with no transactions reported. - The spot price of the ethylene glycol market in Shaanxi remained stable at around 4,000 yuan/ton for self - pickup. - The mainstream market was weakly sorted, the South China market price remained stable at around 4,550 yuan/ton for delivery. - The coking coal futures market continued to decline, which was negative for the cost end, and the ethylene glycol market followed the downward trend, with the East China price negotiated at around 4,480 yuan/ton [8]. 3.4 Industry Chain Data Charts The report includes charts on the closing price and basis of the ethylene glycol main contract, ethylene glycol production profit, domestic ethylene glycol plant operating rate, downstream polyester plant operating rate, East China main - port inventory statistics, and total industry inventory [9][11][13].