煤焦月度报告20250804：宏观预期降温，8月双焦阶段性回调-20250804

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - In July, coking coal and coke prices first rose and then fell, with significant fluctuations in the futures market. By July 31, coke 09 rose 12.47% to close at 1601, and coking coal 09 rose 24.09% to close at 1045.5. Looking ahead to August, the market is expected to return to fundamentals, with short - term corrections in the futures market. Coke is expected to follow coking coal in the correction, but the overall correction space may be limited. The strategy is to lightly short coking coal in the short - term and monitor coal mine production trends around mid - to late August to decide on exiting short positions and looking for potential long - entry opportunities [6][10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Coke Monthly Market Tracking 3.1.1 Price - In July, coke prices rebounded significantly and are facing a phased correction in August. Spot prices had four rounds of increases in July and a fifth round at the beginning of August. For example, the Lvliang quasi - first - grade coke ex - factory price increased from 980 yuan/ton to 1180 yuan/ton. Freight rates for coke transportation showed a mixed trend, with some routes increasing and some decreasing [9][11]. 3.1.2 Supply - Coke enterprise supply recovered slowly. As of August 1, the capacity utilization rate of independent coke enterprises was 73.69%, with a slight increase compared to the previous week and the previous month. The daily coke output was 64.81 tons, also showing a slight increase [25]. 3.1.3 Demand - Pig iron production remained at a high level, providing strong support for raw material demand. As of August 1, the average daily pig iron output of 247 sample steel mills was 240.71 tons. Speculative sentiment was strong at first and then weakened, export profits declined, and building material sales improved temporarily and then weakened again [33][36]. 3.1.4 Inventory - Coke inventories at coke enterprises and steel mills decreased, while port inventories increased, resulting in a decline in total inventories. As of August 1, the total coke inventory was 915.41 tons, a decrease compared to the previous week and the previous month [39]. 3.1.5 Profit - The profit per ton of coke did not improve significantly, and the coke futures market profit declined. As of July 31, the profit per ton of 30 independent coke enterprises was - 45 yuan/ton, with a slight increase compared to the previous month. As of August 1, the coke 09 futures market profit decreased by 27 yuan/ton to 304.5 yuan/ton [50]. 3.1.6 Valuation - The premium of coke 09 converged, and the 9 - 1 spread fluctuated. As of August 1, the coke 09 basis was - 111.18, an increase compared to June, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 39, a decrease compared to the previous month [54]. 3.2 Coking Coal Monthly Market Tracking 3.2.1 Price - In July, coking coal prices rose strongly and then fell sharply, and are facing a phased correction in August. Spot prices rebounded significantly. For example, the price of Jinzhong medium - sulfur primary coking coal increased from 930 yuan/ton to 1400 yuan/ton [57][60]. 3.2.2 Supply - In July, coal mine复产 was slow, and the operating rate of coal washing plants increased slightly. Mongolian coal customs clearance returned to a high level, but from January to June, coking coal imports decreased year - on - year. By the end of July, the daily customs clearance of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu port exceeded 1100 vehicles [63][66][71]. 3.2.3 Inventory - Downstream enterprises replenished their inventories, coal mine inventories decreased significantly, and total inventories declined. As of August 1, the total coking coal inventory was 2493.27 tons, a decrease compared to the previous week and the previous month [74]. 3.2.4 Valuation - Coking coal 09 was basically at par, and the 9 - 1 spread weakened. As of August 1, the coking coal 09 basis was 10, an increase compared to the previous month, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 107.5, a decrease compared to the previous month [99].