非农就业数据大幅下修，经济衰退担忧加剧

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Crude oil prices are likely to continue a high - level oscillation pattern in the short term, but the upside is limited. The actual supply increase is uncertain as OPEC+ production increase needs to observe the compliance of some countries, and the decline in US drilling rigs implies limited marginal shale oil increase. Geopolitical risks support prices, but the shift of buyers to other sources may ease some supply tensions [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily Market Summary - Crude Oil Futures Market Data: On August 1, 2025, the price of the SC crude oil main contract slightly dropped to 527.9 yuan/barrel (-0.64% from the previous day), while WTI and Brent crude oil futures prices remained stable at $69.36/barrel and $71.78/barrel respectively. The SC - Brent spread significantly weakened to $1.43/barrel (previous value $2.08), a decline of 31.25%, and the SC - WTI spread also narrowed by $0.65 to $3.85/barrel. The SC continuous - consecutive 3 spread strengthened by 2.2 yuan to 11.6 yuan/barrel, indicating stronger support for near - month contracts [2]. Supply - Chain Supply, Demand, and Inventory Analysis - Supply Side: OPEC+ announced on August 3 that it will increase production by 547,000 barrels per day in September, marking the full exit from the largest - scale production cut plan since 2024. The US supply is expanding, with May's crude oil production reaching a record 13.49 million barrels per day and Texas production increasing to 5.752 million barrels per day. However, the number of US oil drilling rigs decreased by 5 to 410 in the week of August 1, suggesting a slowdown in short - term shale oil production growth. Geopolitical risks remain, such as the attack on a Russian refinery and the redirection of Russian oil tankers due to US sanctions [3]. - Demand Side: Demand shows structural differentiation. US petroleum product demand in May reached the highest point since January, and high refinery operating rates support short - term consumption. However, the expected year - on - year growth rate of the eurozone's CPI in July dropped to 1.9% (previous value 2.0%), and the risk of economic slowdown may suppress oil demand. Asian buyers may increase their dependence on Middle Eastern and North American crude oil, indirectly supporting Brent and WTI prices [3]. - Inventory Side: There is no latest data on US commercial crude oil and Cushing inventories, but EIA data shows that US crude oil and refined product supplies reached a new high in May. With the expected OPEC+ production increase, medium - and long - term inventory pressure may gradually accumulate [4]. Price Trend Judgment - Crude oil prices are expected to maintain a high - level oscillation in the short term, but the upside is restricted. The supply increase is questionable as the actual capacity release of OPEC+ needs to observe the compliance of some countries, and the decline in US drilling rigs implies limited marginal shale oil increase. Geopolitical risks support prices, but the shift of buyers to other sources may ease some supply tensions [5]. Supply - Chain Price Monitoring - Crude Oil: On August 1, 2025, SC crude oil futures price was 527.9 yuan/barrel, WTI was $67.26/barrel, and Brent was $69.52/barrel. The SC - Brent spread was $3.69/barrel, and the SC - WTI spread was $5.95/barrel. The US commercial crude oil inventory was 42,669,100 barrels, a 1.84% increase from the previous period. The US refinery weekly operating rate was 95.4%, a 0.1% decrease from the previous period [7]. - Fuel Oil: On August 1, 2025, the FU fuel oil futures price was 2,916 yuan/ton, and the LU was 3,645 yuan/ton. The Singapore fuel oil inventory was 24.668 million barrels, a 4.09% increase from the previous period [8]. Industry Dynamics and Interpretation - Supply: OPEC+ decided on August 3 to increase oil production by 547,000 - 548,000 barrels per day in September, marking the full exit from the largest - scale production cut plan. The number of US oil drilling rigs decreased to 410 in the week of August 1. US crude oil production in May reached a record high of 13.49 million barrels per day [9][10]. - Demand: Iran lifted flight restrictions on August 2, which may increase oil demand. The Ukrainian military attacked a Russian refinery, which may affect supply [11]. - Inventory: Fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil futures warehouse receipts remained unchanged. The number of medium - sulfur crude oil futures warehouse receipts was 5,249,000 barrels, unchanged from the previous day. Russian export restrictions may lead to a tight global crude oil and refined product spot market [12]. - Market Information: On Monday, spot gold opened slightly higher, and WTI crude oil opened 0.5% lower. Speculators' net long positions in NYMEX WTI crude oil and Brent crude oil increased in the week of July 29. The eurozone's expected CPI year - on - year growth rate in July dropped to 1.9% [13]. Supply - Chain Data Charts The report provides multiple data charts, including the prices and spreads of WTI and Brent first - line contracts, the spread between SC and WTI, US crude oil weekly production, US and Canadian oil rig numbers, US refinery weekly operating rates, and various inventory data [16][18][22].