能源日报-20250804

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★☆★, indicating a bullish bias but limited trading opportunities on the market [5] - Fuel oil & Low-sulfur fuel oil: ☆☆☆, suggesting a short-term equilibrium state with poor market operability and a wait-and-see approach [5] - Asphalt: ★★★, representing a clearer bullish trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently [5] - LPG: ☆☆☆, showing a short-term equilibrium state with poor market operability and a wait-and-see approach [5] Report's Core View - The crude oil market showed a pattern of rising first and then falling last week. The market risk sentiment declined due to the lower-than-expected US non-farm payroll data in July. Although OPEC+ decided to increase production in September, it could only partially hedge certain risks, and the oil price is expected to be volatile and bullish after the recent correction. The fuel oil and low-sulfur fuel oil markets are facing weak fundamentals, and their cracking spreads are expected to remain weak. The asphalt supply increase space is neutral, demand needs to be repaired, and the low inventory supports the price, with its trend mainly following that of crude oil. The LPG market has a relatively loose supply, and the downside space of the spot price is limited [2][3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Last week, the Brent 10 contract rose 2.84% and the SC09 contract rose 2.92%. The US July non-farm payroll data was lower than expected, and the data for May and June were significantly revised downward, causing the market risk sentiment to decline. OPEC+ decided to increase production by 547,000 barrels per day in September to fully exit the 2.2 million barrels per day batch production cut, which can only partially hedge some risks. The oil price is expected to be volatile and bullish after the recent correction, and attention should be paid to the implementation of the extension of Sino-US reciprocal tariffs before the August 12 deadline [2] Fuel Oil & Low-sulfur Fuel Oil - Crude oil led the decline in oil futures, and the fuel oil series trended lower. The low-sulfur fuel oil cracking continued to decline. The arrival volume in the Singapore market increased significantly in July, and the ship refueling demand lacked support after the peak season. The ship refueling volume in Fujairah has been weakening month-on-month since June. Due to the weak fundamentals of the high and low-sulfur fuel oil markets and the support of crude oil's peak-season demand and geopolitics, the cracking spreads of FU and LU are expected to remain weak [2] Asphalt - The inflow of Venezuelan crude oil into China increased by 3.8% in July. The impact of the diversion of Venezuelan oil resources flowing to North Asia after Chevron was approved to conduct oil business in Venezuela needs to be observed. The production plan in August decreased compared to July, but some Sinopec refineries' actual production exceeded the plan for two consecutive months. The demand recovery in South China was delayed, and the rigid demand in the North was also weak. The sample refinery's shipment volume increased slightly month-on-month, and the cumulative year-on-year increase was stable. The refinery inventory destocking slowed down, and the social inventory increased slightly. The overall commercial inventory increased slightly month-on-month but remained at a relatively low level in recent years. The supply increase space of asphalt is considered neutral for now, and the actual production release of major refineries needs to be tracked. The demand is in a weak state and needs to be repaired, and the low inventory supports the price. The BU trend mainly follows that of crude oil with limited fluctuation space [3] LPG - The Middle East CP was significantly reduced, but the spot discount shrank. Attention should be paid to the accumulation of export surplus pressure under OPEC's production increase. The chemical profit margin stabilized due to the decline in the finished product end, and the PDH operating rate is still rising, providing bottom support for domestic demand. The supply is relatively loose with the overall increase in the arrival volume in July, and the refinery gas may continue to follow the decline in import costs. The market price maintains a low ratio to oil, and the downside space of the spot price is relatively limited after the rapid decline [4]