贵金属期货月报-20250804

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views - Since July, the ceasefire between Israel and Palestine has cooled down the Middle East situation, weakening the impact of geopolitical conflicts on precious metal prices. The US tariff and trade policies are erratic, and Trump's continuous pressure on the Fed to cut interest rates has led to concerns about the Fed's independence. The COMEX gold futures price reached a maximum of $3451.7 per ounce, and the COMEX silver futures price reached a maximum of $39.91 per ounce. With the increasing expectation of a Fed rate cut, precious metal prices are expected to break through the trading range in the future [2]. - Last month, the inventories of COMEX gold and silver increased. Global gold reserves continued to rise, with the People's Bank of China increasing its gold holdings for the eighth consecutive month. The capital inflows of gold and silver ETFs increased, and hedge funds increased their holdings of gold [2]. - The price of Shanghai gold is bullish in the long - term, with an upward trend in the short - term. It is recommended to hold long positions or buy low and sell high in the medium - term. The price of Shanghai silver is slightly rising in the short - term, and it is advisable to focus on long - buying opportunities. It is recommended to buy on dips in the medium - term [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - In terms of price changes, the spot price of London gold decreased by 0.06%, the COMEX gold futures price increased by 1.97%, and the Shanghai gold main contract price decreased by 0.69%. The spot price of London silver decreased by 0.04%, the COMEX silver futures price increased by 2.37%, and the Shanghai silver main contract price increased by 1.23%. The COMEX gold inventory increased by 4.5%, and the total position increased by 1.74%. The COMEX silver inventory increased by 1.09%, and the total position increased by 4.13% [4]. - Since July, the gold - to - silver ratio in both domestic and foreign markets has been continuously declining, but it is still significantly higher than the long - term average, indicating that the silver price is undervalued and has the opportunity to make up for the increase in the future [5]. - The price difference between domestic and foreign precious metals has decreased compared with last month. Affected by tariffs and interest rate cut expectations in July, precious metal prices showed a volatile trend [8]. 2. Macroeconomic Factors - The US dollar index rose and then fell in July. The strong non - farm payrolls report in June strengthened the US dollar, but the uncertainty of trade agreements and Trump's pressure on the Fed weakened the US dollar. The weak non - farm payrolls report in July further weakened the US dollar [11]. - The real yields of the US 5 - year and 10 - year Treasury bonds rose and then fell last month. Affected by the changing US tariff policies and the revised expectations of the Fed rate cut, precious metal prices fluctuated [13]. - In June, the US core PCE price index increased by 2.8% year - on - year, and the overall PCE price index increased by 2.6% year - on - year, both higher than expected. The inflation rebound, combined with the weakness in consumer spending and the labor market, has intensified the policy differences within the Fed. The market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in September has increased [18]. - In June, the US CPI increased by 2.7% year - on - year, and the core CPI increased by 2.9% year - on - year. Except for energy, the prices of other CPI sub - items increased year - on - year. The impact of tariffs on commodity inflation has emerged, but the transmission to service inflation is not significant. The Fed maintained the interest rate in July [21]. - In July, the US ISM manufacturing PMI was 48, lower than expected and below the boom - bust line. In June, the ISM service PMI was 50.8, slightly higher than expected. In June, the US retail sales increased by 0.6% month - on - month, and the core retail sales increased by 0.5% month - on - month, both exceeding expectations [24]. - In July, the US ADP employment increased by 104,000, but the proportion of consumers thinking that "jobs are difficult to obtain" reached a nearly four - and - a - half - year high. The non - farm payrolls increased by only 73,000, far lower than expected, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, indicating a weak labor market [27]. - The Fed maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% - 4.5% in July. There were two dissenting votes, indicating increased internal differences. The US tariff policy is erratic, and the trade progress has boosted the US dollar and market risk sentiment, while the uncertainty has increased the safe - haven premium of precious metals [30]. - According to the World Gold Council's survey, 43% of central banks plan to increase their gold reserves in the next 12 months. In the second quarter of 2025, the global gold demand increased by 3% year - on - year. The People's Bank of China has increased its gold holdings for eight consecutive months, which helps to hedge risks and promote RMB internationalization [31]. 3. Position Analysis - As of July 29, 2025, the net long position of CMX gold speculators increased by 21,600 lots to 223,600 lots, and hedge funds increased their holdings of gold. The net long position of CMX silver speculators decreased by 4,000 lots to 59,400 lots [34]. - As of August 1, 2025, the holdings of SPDR gold ETF increased by 4.85 tons to 953.08 tons, and the holdings of SLV silver ETF increased by 187.66 tons to 15,056.66 tons. Overall, the capital inflows of gold and silver ETFs accelerated last month [35]. 4. Other Elements - As of August 1, 2025, the COMEX gold inventory was 38.7156 million ounces, a 4.5% increase from last month, and the COMEX silver inventory was 506.6616 million ounces, a 1.09% increase from last month [39]. - In July 2025, the global gold reserve was 36,305.84 tons, an increase of 31.55 tons from last month. China's gold reserve was 2,296.35 tons, an increase of 1.86 tons from last month. In the second quarter of 2025, the global gold demand increased by 3% year - on - year. The global silver shortage is expected to narrow by 21% in 2025, and the industrial demand for silver remains strong [42]. - As the tariff sentiment eases, the impact of trade policy changes on precious metal prices will gradually weaken. The US economic data shows that inflation is moderate, and the weak non - farm payrolls data in July provides an opportunity for the Fed to restart a moderate rate cut. The precious metal prices are expected to break through the trading range in the future, and it is recommended to buy on dips [43].