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天富期货原油大幅回落下能化面临继续走弱压力
Tian Fu Qi Huo·2025-08-04 13:13

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report Crude oil has significantly declined, putting pressure on the energy and chemical sector to continue weakening. Most varieties in the sector are in a situation where the medium - term structure is oscillating and the short - term structure is bearish, with the recommended strategy of holding short positions [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Crude Oil - Logic: On August 3rd, OPEC+ decided to continue a substantial production increase of 547,000 barrels per day in September. U.S. refined oil apparent demand has been weakening in the past two weeks, and after continuous inventory accumulation of crude oil and refined oil, the support of low inventory has weakened. The market has shifted from weak expectations to the stage of weak reality realization, and the weight of fundamentals has increased. There may be a tendency of "recession expectation" trading in the macro - economy after the cold U.S. non - farm payrolls in July. However, potential short - term disturbances caused by Trump's sanctions on Russia should be guarded against [2]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level medium - term structure of crude oil is oscillating/declining, and the hourly - level short - term structure is declining. After a long bearish candlestick with heavy volume today, the short - term structure has reversed. The upper pressure level is around 530, and currently, the 516 level of the 15 - minute short - term decline can be referred to. The strategy is to look for opportunities to go short after the rebound ends (first focus on the 15 - minute level) [2]. 2. Styrene (EB) - Logic: The pressure on pure benzene at the cost end remains high. The considerable profit of styrene stimulates the increase of supply and production capacity utilization, and the supply pressure further increases with the commissioning of new plants. The demand side has been lackluster, and the fundamentals will continue to be under pressure under the pattern of high inventory, high supply, and weak demand [5]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level short - term structure of styrene is declining. After reaching a low point today, it rebounded slightly, and the intraday oscillation did not change the downward path. The short - term upper pressure can be temporarily focused on the 7375 level. The strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle [5]. 3. Rubber - Logic: According to the seasonal logic, the price should be stronger in the second half of the year, but this year, the supply of rubber has been difficult to increase under normal weather conditions. The high inventory of terminal tires far exceeding historical levels has made the demand expectation weaker than in previous years. Coupled with the high inventory pressure of continuous seasonal inventory accumulation, the fundamental driving force of rubber is still downward [9]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level medium - term structure of rubber is declining, and the hourly - level short - term structure is also declining. It oscillated intraday today, and after a short - term sharp decline, the slope was repaired. The upper pressure can be focused on the 15120 level. The strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle [9]. 4. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - Logic: The high inventory of terminal tires far exceeding historical levels has made the demand expectation weaker than in previous years. The supply side has released production capacity with the restart of plants, and the production and operation rate have remained high. The short - term inventory of butadiene at the cost end is low with little pressure, but it will also be bearish after the increase of arrivals in the future. The fundamentals are bearish [14]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level medium - term structure is oscillating/declining, and the hourly - level short - term structure is oscillating. It oscillated intraday today, and after a short - term sharp decline, the slope was repaired. The upper pressure can be focused on the 11550 level. The strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle [14]. 5. PX - Logic: There is little change in the overall operation rate of upstream and downstream industries during the conversion of peak and off - peak seasons of downstream terminals. There is little short - term fundamental contradiction, and it may follow the direction of crude oil at the cost end [18]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level short - term structure of PX is declining. It continued to decline with increasing positions today, and the downward structure was confirmed after reaching a new short - term low. The upper pressure level of 6980 is far away, and the 6830 level of the 15 - minute cycle can be referred to first. The strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle [18]. 6. PTA - Logic: The operation rates of upstream and downstream industries remain stable with little change, and the inventory is at a neutral level. There is no short - term fundamental contradiction, and it may follow the direction of crude oil at the cost end [20]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level short - term structure of PTA is declining. It continued to decline with increasing positions today, and the downward structure was confirmed after reaching a new short - term low. The upper pressure level of 4900 is far away, and the 4785 level of the 15 - minute cycle can be referred to first. The strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle [20]. 7. PP - Logic: It is the off - season for demand, and the downstream operation rate is weak. Coupled with the commissioning of new production capacity and the restart of maintenance plants, the inventory at all links has continued to accumulate. The fundamental driving force is downward, and the trend of crude oil should also be noted [23]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level short - term structure of PP is declining. It oscillated intraday today, and after a short - term sharp decline, the slope was repaired to some extent without changing the downward structure. The upper pressure level of 7195 is far away, and the 7140 level of the 15 - minute cycle can be focused on first. The strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle [23]. 8. Methanol - Logic: The inventory at ports has continued to accumulate, and domestic maintenance plants have restarted, with the operation rate increasing and remaining at the highest level in history year - on - year. The demand for olefins in the downstream is average, while that of traditional downstream industries is good, and the overall situation is acceptable with little short - term contradiction [26]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level medium - term structure of methanol is declining/oscillating, and the short - term structure is declining. It oscillated intraday today, with the center of gravity slowly moving down. The upper pressure can be temporarily focused on the 2425 level. The strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle [26]. 9. PVC - Logic: Some plants have ended maintenance and the operation rate has increased. The terminal demand continues to be weak due to the ongoing decline of the real estate industry and the off - season. After the exchange restricted positions and the Politburo meeting did not mention anti - involution, the speculative funds with previous expectations withdrew, and the price has been downward - adjusting in the short term [28]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level medium - term structure of PVC is rising, and the hourly - level short - term structure is declining. It continued to decline with increasing positions today, and the downward path remained unchanged. The short - term upper pressure can be focused on the 5070 level. The strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle [28]. 10. Ethylene Glycol (EG) - Logic: After continuous decline, the low inventory at ports provides short - term support, but the terminal demand remains weak. The current situation is relatively strong, but the expectation is weak. The time point when the inventory turns to accumulation should be noted [30]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level medium - term structure of EG is oscillating/declining, and the hourly - level short - term structure is oscillating. It oscillated intraday today, with the center of gravity slowly moving down. The short - term upper pressure level of 4490 is far away, and the 4410 level of the 15 - minute cycle can be focused on first. The strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle [30]. 11. Plastic - Logic: Maintenance plants have restarted, and the operation rate has increased. Coupled with the commissioning of new production capacity, the supply pressure is relatively large. The downstream operation rate remains at a low level year - on - year and continues to be weak. The supply - demand driving force is bearish [33]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level medium - term structure of plastic is oscillating/declining, and the hourly - level structure is oscillating. It rebounded slightly after a decline today, and the hourly - level structure is not clear, following the market sentiment recently. The strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle [33].