公用事业行业跟踪周报：继续推荐受益绿证价值提升+装机高增的绿电板块-20250804

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the green electricity sector, benefiting from the appreciation of green certificate values and high installation growth [1]. Core Insights - The report continues to recommend investment opportunities in green electricity operators against the backdrop of increasing green certificate values. In June 2025, the National Energy Administration issued 278 million green certificates, a month-on-month increase of 29.33%, involving 198,700 renewable energy projects, with 196 million being tradable certificates, accounting for 70.64% [4][6]. - Key industry data shows that in the first half of 2025, total electricity consumption reached 4.84 trillion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 3.7%. The cumulative power generation was 4.54 trillion kWh, up 0.8% year-on-year, with significant growth in wind and solar power generation [4][13][22]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The SW public utility index fell by 1.84% during the week of July 28 to August 1, 2025, with declines across various sectors including thermal power and solar energy [9]. 2. Electricity Sector Tracking 2.1. Electricity Consumption - Total electricity consumption in H1 2025 was 4.84 trillion kWh, with growth rates of 8.7% in the primary industry, 2.4% in the secondary industry, 7.1% in the tertiary industry, and 4.1% in urban and rural residential use [13]. 2.2. Power Generation - Cumulative power generation in H1 2025 was 4.54 trillion kWh, with thermal and hydro power generation declining by 2.4% and 2.9% respectively, while wind and solar power generation increased by 11.1% and 18.3% [22]. 2.3. Electricity Prices - The average grid purchase price in July 2025 was 382 RMB/MWh, down 3% year-on-year and 1.4% month-on-month [36]. 2.4. Thermal Power - As of August 1, 2025, the price of thermal coal at Qinhuangdao was 663 RMB/ton, a year-on-year decrease of 21.91% but a week-on-week increase of 10 RMB/ton [46]. 2.5. Hydropower - The water level at the Three Gorges Reservoir was 160.66 meters as of August 1, 2025, with inflow and outflow rates showing significant year-on-year declines of 49.02% and 44.94% respectively [57]. 2.6. Nuclear Power - In 2024, 11 new nuclear units were approved, indicating a continued trend of safe and orderly development in the nuclear sector [71]. 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on investment opportunities in solar energy and charging stations, highlighting companies such as Longyuan Power, Zhongmin Energy, and China Nuclear Power as key recommendations [4].