Guoxin Securities·2025-08-04 13:13Market Overview - In July, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index increased by 3.54%, while the public utility index decreased by 0.77% and the environmental index increased by 2.10%. The relative returns for public utilities and environmental sectors were -4.32% and -1.94%, respectively [1][15][23]. - Among the sub-sectors, the environmental sector rose by 1.60%, with thermal power increasing by 1.21%, hydropower decreasing by 4.35%, and new energy generation rising by 0.80% [1][15][24]. Important Policies and Events - The Guangdong Provincial Development and Reform Commission announced adjustments to the capacity pricing for coal and gas power plants, effective from January 1, 2026, with coal power set at 165 yuan per kilowatt per year and gas power varying from 165 to 396 yuan depending on the type of gas used [2][16][17]. - The Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region proposed a market-oriented reform plan for new energy pricing, setting a benchmark price for coal-fired power at 0.2595 yuan per kilowatt-hour [2][17]. Sector Research - The National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration issued guidelines to improve the pricing mechanism for domestic natural gas pipeline transportation, aiming for a unified pricing model and a permitted return rate of approximately 5.7%, down from 8% [3][18][20]. - This new regulation is expected to lower transportation costs for natural gas, benefiting urban gas companies [3][20]. Investment Strategy - Public Utilities: Recommendations include large thermal power companies like Huadian International and Shanghai Electric, as coal and electricity prices are expected to decline [4][21]. - New Energy: Continued government support for new energy development is anticipated to stabilize profitability, with recommendations for leading companies such as Longyuan Power and Three Gorges Energy [4][21]. - Nuclear Power: Expected stable profitability due to growth in installed capacity and generation, with recommendations for China Nuclear Power and China General Nuclear Power [4][21]. - Hydropower: High-dividend hydropower stocks are highlighted for their defensive attributes, with Longjiang Power recommended [4][21]. - Gas: Recommendations include China Resources Gas and Jiufeng Energy, which have strong pricing power and strategic advantages [4][21]. Sector Performance - In July, the public utility sector ranked 30th among 31 sectors, while the environmental sector ranked 22nd [1][15][23]. - The performance of various sub-sectors showed mixed results, with water utilities and gas sectors generally performing better than thermal and hydropower sectors [1][15][24]. Key Company Earnings Forecasts - Huadian International (600027.SH): EPS forecast for 2024A at 0.46 yuan, PE ratio at 11.5 [9]. - Longyuan Power (001289.SZ): EPS forecast for 2024A at 0.75 yuan, PE ratio at 21.8 [9]. - China Nuclear Power (601985.SH): EPS forecast for 2024A at 0.46 yuan, PE ratio at 19.9 [9]. - Longjiang Power (600900.SH): EPS forecast for 2024A at 1.33 yuan, PE ratio at 21.0 [9].