鸡蛋暴跌、玉米下挫
Tian Fu Qi Huo·2025-08-04 13:20
- Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The agricultural product sector is generally under pressure. Eggs, corn, and sugar are in a downward trend, while soybean meal has limited upward space and may face downward pressure later. Cotton is in a short - term rebound but the downward trend remains. Other products such as palm oil, pork, etc. also show different degrees of decline or unfavorable fundamentals [1]. 3. Summary by Variety Eggs - Market Situation: The main 2509 contract of eggs has plummeted, hitting a new low this year. The supply is abundant with high egg - laying hen inventory, slow old - hen culling, and increasing newly - laid hens. The demand side has a postponed Mid - Autumn Festival stocking cycle, and high - temperature weather has increased egg substitutes and affected logistics, leading to low - price selling by farmers [2]. - Technical Analysis: The contract price is running far below the moving - average system, with a MACD death cross and a significant increase in the green column, showing a weak technical pattern [3]. - Strategy: Hold a small - position short position, with support at 3330 and resistance at 3400 [3]. Corn - Market Situation: The main 2509 contract of corn continues to decline. The regular auction of corn by the State Grain Reserve, wheat substitution, and the approaching listing of spring corn have increased supply. The demand from feed and deep - processing enterprises is weak [4]. - Technical Analysis: The contract price has fallen below the 2300 integer mark, with a MACD death cross below the zero axis and the appearance of a green column, indicating a weak technical pattern [4]. - Strategy: Hold a small - position short position, with support at 2274 and resistance at 2300 [4]. Soybean Meal - Market Situation: The 2509 contract of soybean meal fluctuates upward but with limited amplitude. The increase in soybean import costs provides support, and the downstream demand has slightly improved. However, the high - volume crushing of oil mills has led to sufficient supply and inventory accumulation [6]. - Technical Analysis: The contract price has once stood above the moving - average system, showing a slightly strong technical pattern [6]. - Strategy: Close short positions and conduct short - term trading, with support at 3000 and resistance at 3050 [6]. Cotton - Market Situation: The main 2509 contract of cotton rebounds at a low level due to short - covering, but the downward trend remains. The new - year cotton harvest is expected to be good, and the market anticipates the issuance of sliding - duty quotas. The textile industry is in a slack season with insufficient orders [8]. - Technical Analysis: The contract price is still under the pressure of the medium - term moving average, with a MACD death cross and a continuous green column, showing a weak technical pattern [8]. - Strategy: Hold a small - position short position, with support at 13535 and resistance at 13715 [8]. Soybean Oil - Market Situation: The main 2509 contract of soybean oil fluctuates narrowly at a high level. High - volume crushing by domestic oil mills has led to continuous inventory accumulation, but exports to India have boosted prices. The supply - demand pattern remains supply - strong and demand - weak [10]. - Technical Analysis: The contract price is still above the moving - average system, with a long - position arrangement of moving averages and a continuous red MACD column, showing a strong technical pattern [10]. - Strategy: Hold a small - position long position, with support at 8176 and resistance at 8300 [10]. Palm Oil - Market Situation: The main 2509 contract of palm oil fluctuates downward. The weak fundamentals of increasing production and decreasing exports in Malaysia have pressured the price, and the domestic demand is still sluggish [12]. - Technical Analysis: The contract price has fallen below the 20 - day moving average, with a MACD death cross and an enlarged green column, showing a weak technical pattern [12]. - Strategy: Hold a small - position short position, with support at 8740 and resistance at 8850 [12]. Pigs - Market Situation: The 2509 contract of pigs continues to decline, hitting a one - and - a - half - month low. The supply has increased due to factors such as disease risks and incremental slaughter by group pig enterprises, while the demand is weak [14]. - Technical Analysis: The contract price has continuously closed with negative lines, with a MACD death cross and an enlarged green column, showing a weak technical pattern [14]. - Strategy: Hold a small - position short position, with support at 13770 and resistance at 14000 [14]. Sugar - Market Situation: The main 2509 contract of Zhengzhou sugar continues to decline, hitting a one - month low. The overseas market has increased production, and the domestic market is under pressure from the expected increase in imported sugar [16]. - Technical Analysis: The contract price has fallen below the moving - average system and expanded the downward space, with a MACD death cross and an enlarged green column, showing a weak technical pattern [16]. - Strategy: Hold a small - position short position, with support at 5700 and resistance at 5750 [16]. Jujubes - Market Situation: The main 2601 contract of jujubes rises and then falls, fluctuating at a high level. The estimated new - jujube production is slightly lower than expected, and the consumption is in the off - season. The futures market is still in a game about the new - jujube production reduction [19]. - Technical Analysis: The contract price fluctuates above the moving averages, with a MACD golden cross and an enlarged red column [19]. - Strategy: Hold a small - position long position, with support at 10810 and resistance at 11150 [19]. Apples - Market Situation: The main 2510 contract of apples rebounds with the support of short - covering, but the space may be limited. The price of early - maturing apples in the west is falling, and the trading of stored apples in Shandong is slow [22]. - Technical Analysis: The contract price is still under the pressure of the 20 - day moving average, with a MACD death cross and an enlarged green column, showing a weak technical pattern [22]. - Strategy: Hold short positions, with support at 7736 and resistance at 7865 [22].