Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Report's Core View - In August, credit bonds may fluctuate more on the whole, with more opportunities than risks, and credit buyers are relatively active. It is advisable for institutions with unstable liability ends to appropriately explore medium - and low - grade general credit bonds within 3 years, and trade 3 - 5 - year secondary perpetual bonds and high - grade general credit bonds with good liquidity. Institutions with strong trading capabilities can also appropriately trade ultra - long secondary perpetual bonds and take profit when the yield approaches the July low. General credit bonds are expected to have opportunities to narrow spreads, and the old secondary perpetual bonds are expected to have a small supplementary increase [22][23]. Summary According to the Directory Credit Hotspots: Review and Outlook of the Current Round of Credit Bond Adjustment - During July 18 - July 29, 2025, affected by policies and other factors, the bond market adjusted. Credit bonds had a larger correction amplitude than interest - rate bonds, with medium - and long - term adjustments more significant and secondary perpetual bonds adjusting more. Credit spreads generally widened, except for some passive narrowing [9]. - As of August 1, 2025, in the adjustment stage (7.18 - 7.29), secondary perpetual bonds had the largest correction amplitude, followed by 3Y, 5Y, 10Y general credit bonds. In the repair stage (7.29 - 8.1), short - and medium - term secondary perpetual bonds repaired first, and 1 - 5Y secondary perpetual bonds and medium - and high - grade 5Y, 10Y general credit bonds repaired relatively more [12]. - In terms of institutional behavior, from July 21 - July 29, funds sold a large amount of credit bonds, while wealth management and insurance increased their positions. From July 30 - August 1, institutional buyers were active, and the short - term redemption wave basically subsided. With the expected reduction of insurance product predetermined interest rates on August 31, buyers may continue to be active [14]. - Credit bond ETFs were affected by the bond market adjustment. During July 18 - July 29, the average closing prices of benchmark - making credit bond ETFs and science - innovation bond ETFs fell, and then repaired from July 29 - August 1. Most science - innovation bond ETFs increased in scale, while benchmark - making credit bond ETFs decreased slightly [15]. - The component bonds and non - component bonds of credit bond ETFs showed different trends in the adjustment and repair periods. Component bonds generally had a larger correction amplitude and a smaller repair amplitude, but the overall difference was not significant [19]. Market Review: "Anti - involution" Trading Cools Down, and Credit Bonds Fully Recover - From July 25 to August 1, 2025, after the July Politburo meeting, the "anti - involution" trading sentiment cooled down, the impact of the equity market on the bond market weakened, and the bond market recovered. Most credit bond yields declined, with short - and medium - term yields down about 3BP and medium - and long - term spreads up about 2BP passively. Secondary perpetual bond yields generally declined significantly, and spreads declined about 2BP. Wealth management and funds had net purchases, and the scale of credit bond ETFs increased by 1.26% compared with the previous week. Most median spreads of AAA - rated public bonds in various industries and most median spreads of urban investment bonds in each province declined, with Guizhou's spreads down more than 6BP [2][26]. Primary Issuance: Net Financing of Corporate Credit Bonds Soars, and Average Issuance Interest Rates Fluctuate - From July 28 to August 1, 2025, corporate credit bonds issued a total of 217.4 billion yuan, a 33% decrease from the previous period; financial credit bonds issued a total of 31.4 billion yuan, an 86% decrease. Corporate credit bonds had a net financing of 51.6 billion yuan, an 84% increase from the previous period, with urban investment bonds having a net repayment of 6.6 billion yuan and industrial bonds having a net financing of 48.2 billion yuan. Financial credit bonds had a net financing of 6.9 billion yuan. The average issuance interest rates of medium - and short - term notes fluctuated, and the average issuance interest rates of corporate bonds showed a downward trend except for AA - rated bonds [3][51]. Secondary Trading: Short - and Medium - Duration Trading is Active, and Long - Duration Trading Declines - Active trading entities are mainly medium - and high - grade, short - and medium - term, and central and state - owned enterprises. Urban investment bond active trading entities are divided into two types: mainstream high - grade platforms in economically strong provinces and core main platforms in areas with relatively high spreads in large economic provinces. Real - estate bond and private - enterprise bond active trading entities are mainly AAA - rated, with trading durations mostly in the short - and medium - term. There was no trading of urban investment bonds with a remaining term of more than 5 years, a decline from the previous week [4][61].
本轮信用债调整回顾与展望
HTSC·2025-08-04 13:20