流动性和机构行为周度观察：资金面平稳跨月，月初或迎季节性宽松-20250804

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints of the Report - From July 28 to August 1, 2025, the central bank conducted a small - scale net injection of funds through 7 - day reverse repurchase operations. The liquidity situation showed minor fluctuations during the month - end transition but returned to stability afterward. From July 28 to August 3, the net payment scale of government bonds decreased, the yields of maturing inter - bank certificates of deposit (NCDs) declined overall, and the average leverage ratio in the inter - bank bond market remained basically stable. From August 4 to August 10, the expected net payment of government bonds is 33.9 billion yuan, and the maturing scale of NCDs is about 59.83 billion yuan [2]. - The central bank is expected to continue to support the liquidity situation. In August, with the maturity of MLF and outright reverse repurchase, considering the need to stabilize expectations, the central bank is likely to maintain its supportive stance towards the liquidity [5]. - The liquidity is expected to remain reasonably abundant in August, and the funding rates are likely to stay at a relatively low level. At the beginning of the month, the liquidity may experience seasonal easing, but attention should be paid to the issuance rhythm of government bonds and the large - scale maturity of NCDs during the month [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Funding Situation - Central Bank Operations: From July 28 to August 1, 2025, the central bank's 7 - day reverse repurchase operations had a net injection of 690 million yuan. From August 4 to August 8, 166.32 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchases will mature. In July, the central bank injected 10 billion yuan of liquidity through MLF and 20 billion yuan through outright reverse repurchase. In August, 30 billion yuan of MLF and 90 billion yuan of outright reverse repurchase will mature [5]. - Funding Rates: From July 28 to August 1, the average values of DR001 and R001 decreased by 7.3 and 5.2 basis points respectively compared with the period from July 21 to July 25. The average values of DR007 and R007 decreased by 0.7 and increased by 2.8 basis points respectively. In July, the funding rates fluctuated significantly, and in August, they are expected to remain low, but it is difficult to decline further compared with early July [6]. - Government Bond Net Payment: From July 28 to August 3, the net payment of government bonds was about 28.76 billion yuan, 2.84 billion yuan less than the previous week. From August 4 to August 10, the expected net payment is 33.9 billion yuan [7]. 2. Inter - bank Certificates of Deposit (NCDs) - Yields of Maturing NCDs: As of August 1, 2025, the yields of 1M, 3M, and 1Y NCDs decreased by 7, 4, and 4 basis points respectively compared with July 25. The decline was due to the stabilization of funding rates and the partial recovery of the bond market [8]. - Net Financing of NCDs: From July 28 to August 3, the net financing of NCDs was about 1 billion yuan, turning positive from - 56.08 billion yuan in the previous week. From August 4 to August 10, the maturing repayment amount of NCDs is expected to be 59.83 billion yuan, with an increased pressure on renewal compared with the previous week [8]. 3. Institutional Behavior - Leverage Ratio in the Inter - bank Bond Market: From July 28 to August 1, the average calculated leverage ratio in the inter - bank bond market was 107.63%, basically the same as the previous week. On August 1 and July 25, the calculated leverage ratios were about 108.10% and 107.27% respectively [11].