有色和贵金属每日早盘观察-20250804

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report analyzes the market conditions of various metals including precious metals, copper, aluminum, zinc, etc. It points out that factors such as US economic data, Fed policies, and supply - demand fundamentals affect metal prices. Precious metals are expected to remain strong in the short - term, while other metals have different price trends based on their own supply - demand situations [8][14][19] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Precious Metals - Market Review: London gold rose over $70 and 2.22% to $3362.64/oz, London silver rose 1% to $37.02/oz. Shanghai gold futures rose 1.33% to 781 yuan/g, Shanghai silver futures rose 0.80% to 8994 yuan/kg. The US dollar index fell 1.37% to 98.67, 10 - year US Treasury yield dropped to 4.225%, and the RMB against the US dollar rose 0.09% to 7.193 [4] - Important Information: US July non - farm payrolls were 73,000 (expected 110,000), unemployment rate was 4.2%, and average hourly earnings annual rate was 3.9%. July ISM manufacturing PMI was 48, S&P Global manufacturing PMI was 49.8. Fed officials had different views on the labor market, and the probability of Fed rate cuts increased [5][6][8] - Logic Analysis: Weak US non - farm data, Fed internal differences, and doubts about Fed independence led to a decline in the US dollar and 10 - year US Treasury yields, and precious metals gained upward momentum. They are expected to remain high and be prone to rise and hard to fall in the short - term [8] - Trading Strategy: Hold previous long positions, wait and see for arbitrage, and buy deep out - of - the - money call options on dips [9] Copper - Market Review: Shanghai copper 2509 contract closed at 78,170 yuan/ton, down 0.13%, LME copper closed at $9,633/ton, up 0.27%. LME inventory increased 3,550 tons to 141,000 tons, COMEX inventory increased 1,766 tons to 259,000 tons [11] - Important Information: US July non - farm payrolls were poor, Fed理事Adriana Kugler resigned, Zangge Mining's Julong Copper Mine Phase II is expected to be put into production by the end of 2025, and Codelco cut copper mining at its El Teniente project [11][13] - Logic Analysis: Poor non - farm data increased the probability of a September rate cut. Supply was tight with new disruptions, and domestic electrolytic copper production increased. Downstream procurement increased after price corrections, and LME inventory increased first [14] - Trading Strategy: Prices are expected to be weak and volatile, focus on the 77,000 - 78,000 yuan/ton support, wait and see for arbitrage and options [14] Alumina - Market Review: Alumina 2509 contract fell 39 yuan to 3,166 yuan/ton at night. Spot prices in different regions had different changes [16] - Important Information: Australian alumina price was stable, China's Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will implement a ten - key - industry stability and growth plan, spot prices decreased due to active sales by futures - cash traders, and inventory increased [16][18] - Logic Analysis: After the speculation sentiment cooled, prices returned to the fundamental logic. Supply - demand surplus expanded, and prices were under pressure but had support at 3,000 - 3,100 yuan [19] - Trading Strategy: Prices are under pressure, focus on the 3,000 - 3,100 yuan support, wait and see for arbitrage and options [20] Electrolytic Aluminum - Market Review: Shanghai aluminum 2509 contract rose 5 yuan to 2,048 yuan/ton at night. Spot prices in different regions fell [22] - Important Information: US non - farm data was poor, the US adjusted "equivalent tariffs" to take effect on August 7, electrolytic aluminum inventory was stable on August 1, and SHFE warehouse receipts decreased [23][24] - Logic Analysis: Macro factors affected LME and Shanghai aluminum prices. Domestic speculative sentiment cooled, and inventory was expected to increase but at a slower pace [24] - Trading Strategy: Prices are under short - term pressure, consider positive arbitrage for 09 - 12 contracts after the spread converges, wait and see for options [24] Cast Aluminum Alloy - Market Review: Cast aluminum alloy 2511 contract fell 15 yuan to 19,875 yuan/ton at night. Spot prices in different regions fell [27] - Important Information: Cast aluminum alloy production decreased slightly, and the National Development and Reform Commission and the State Administration for Market Regulation are amending the Price Law [27] - Logic Analysis: Scrap aluminum shortage restricted production, supply was tight, demand was weak, and futures prices were expected to fluctuate with aluminum prices [28] - Trading Strategy: Prices are under pressure and fluctuate with aluminum prices, consider positive arbitrage when the spot - futures spread is over 300 yuan, wait and see for options [28] Zinc - Market Review: LME zinc fell 3.52% to $2,729.5/ton, Shanghai zinc 2509 fell 0.54% to 22,225 yuan/ton. Spot trading was average [30] - Important Information: China's refined zinc production in July was 602,800 tons, Nexa's Q2 zinc production had changes [30][31] - Logic Analysis: Domestic zinc concentrate supply was sufficient, smelters were profitable and production was expected to increase, and consumption was in the off - season [31][33] - Trading Strategy: Hold profitable short positions, buy put options, wait and see for options [33] Lead - Market Review: LME lead rose 0.23% to $1,974/ton, Shanghai lead 2509 rose 0.69% to 16,775 yuan/ton. Spot trading improved regionally [35] - Important Information: The supply of waste lead - acid batteries was still limited, and some smelters stopped purchasing due to equipment maintenance or poor market conditions [35][36] - Logic Analysis: Lead concentrate was tight, primary lead supply increased, secondary lead production had an increase despite losses, and downstream procurement improved [38] - Trading Strategy: Prices are expected to oscillate at a low level, wait and see for arbitrage and options [38] Nickel - Market Review: LME nickel rose $70 to $15,020/ton, inventory increased 390 tons to 209,082 tons. Spot premiums of different brands changed [40] - Important Information: Jien was registered as an LME delivery brand, Eramet's Indonesian subsidiary had mixed performance, and the Indonesian nickel industry faced challenges [40][42] - Logic Analysis: Poor US non - farm data boosted non - ferrous metals prices. Nickel supply and demand both increased slightly in August, and prices were expected to oscillate [42] - Trading Strategy: Prices are expected to oscillate widely, wait and see for arbitrage, sell out - of - the - money put options [42][43] Stainless Steel - Market Review: The main SS2509 contract fell 45 yuan to 12,820 yuan/ton. Spot prices of cold - rolled and hot - rolled products were given [45] - Important Information: Outokumpu's Q2 2025 performance was positive, and it announced a new strategy [46] - Logic Analysis: The market traded on the US economic recession expectation, stainless steel production was expected to increase in August, but demand was in the off - season and inventory declined slowly [48] - Trading Strategy: Prices are expected to oscillate widely in the short - term, wait and see for arbitrage [48] Industrial Silicon - Market Review: Industrial silicon futures fell last week, and spot prices decreased [50] - Important Information: The National Development and Reform Commission emphasized market - oriented and legal governance to break "involution" [50] - Logic Analysis: As leading manufacturers resumed production, the fundamentals became bearish, and the price was in a negative cycle [51] - Trading Strategy: Participate in short - term short positions, consider reverse arbitrage for the 11th and 12th contracts [53] Polysilicon - Market Review: Polysilicon futures weakened last week, and spot prices were given [55] - Important Information: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued an energy - saving supervision task list for the polysilicon industry [55] - Logic Analysis: Polysilicon production is expected to increase in August, there will be an oversupply, and capacity integration is expected to strengthen. Prices may have short - term callbacks but also sudden positives [55] - Trading Strategy: Participate lightly during price corrections with strict stop - losses, hold long polysilicon and short industrial silicon positions long - term, and conduct reverse arbitrage for far - month polysilicon contracts [56] Lithium Carbonate - Market Review: The main 2509 contract rose 1,080 yuan to 68,920 yuan/ton, and spot prices decreased [58] - Important Information: The National Certification and Accreditation Administration issued a new certification rule for lithium - ion batteries, CBA said the worst of the lithium bear market was over, and POSCO made an acquisition offer [59][60] - Logic Analysis: Positive factors supported short - term prices, and there may be a gap - up on Monday due to mine disturbance expectations [61] - Trading Strategy: Prices are expected to oscillate at a high level, wait and see for arbitrage, sell out - of - the - money put options [61] Tin - Market Review: Shanghai tin 2509 rose 0.8% to 266,370 yuan/ton, and spot prices and processing fees were given [63] - Important Information: US non - farm payrolls were poor, Fed理事Adriana Kugler resigned, and Indonesia's PTTimah's refined tin production and sales decreased in the first half of the year [63][64] - Logic Analysis: Tin prices rebounded after the non - farm data, the supply of tin ore was tight, and demand was in the off - season [65] - Trading Strategy: Prices are expected to oscillate weakly, wait and see for options [65]