钢矿月度报告：产业预期落空，黑色反弹受阻-20250804

Report Title - Steel and Ore Monthly Report 2025 - 08: Industrial Expectations Disappointed, Black Rebound Halted [1] Report Authors - Xie Chen, Yang Hui from Zhengxin Futures Industrial Research Center's Black Industry Group [2] Report Main Views Steel - Price: Spot prices rebounded significantly, and the futures market was strong. In July, the螺纹10 contract rose 208 to 3205, and the hot - rolled coil futures price rose 267 to 3390. Shanghai's spot prices for rebar and hot - rolled coil increased by 220 and 170 respectively [8]. - Supply: Blast furnace production remained high, and electric furnace supply increased significantly. As of August 1, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.46%, and the average capacity utilization rate of 90 independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 57.05% at the end of July [11][18]. - Demand: Speculative demand for building materials increased significantly, while both domestic and foreign demand for plates decreased month - on - month. In July, the average monthly apparent demand for rebar decreased by 3.4% month - on - month, and the apparent demand for hot - rolled coils decreased by 1% [24][27]. - Profit: Blast furnace profits continued to increase, and electric furnace production turned profitable. By August 1, the blast furnace profitability rate reached 65.4%, and the average profit of electric furnace rebar at off - peak electricity was 81 yuan/ton on July 30 [31]. - Inventory: The inventory accumulation rate of building materials was slower than expected, and plate inventories continued to accumulate. As of August 1, rebar social inventory increased by 200,000 tons month - on - month, and hot - rolled coil social inventory increased by 2% in July [35][38]. - Basis: The basis fluctuated, and the futures - spot spread accelerated its decline. The rebar 10 - contract basis widened by 4 from the end of June to August 1, and the hot - rolled coil basis inverted [41]. - Summary: In July, blast furnace operations were basically flat, molten iron production remained high, and electric furnace production increased significantly. Overall supply was abundant. Demand for plates was weak due to the seasonal off - peak for manufacturing. Considering the weakening support logic in the black industry, there is significant pressure for a correction in the futures market. Maintain a short - selling strategy in the short term [3]. Iron Ore - Price: Spot ore prices rose significantly, and the futures market rebounded strongly. In July, the futures price rose 63.5 to 779, and the Rizhao Port PB powder price rose 64 to 779 yuan/ton [52]. - Supply: Global shipments decreased month - on - month, and arrivals also declined. In July, the weekly average global shipment volume was 30.73 million tons, a decrease of 3.59 million tons from the previous month [55]. - Demand: Molten iron production remained high, and demand was expected to remain resilient. In July, blast furnace operations were basically flat, and molten iron production remained high. It is expected that the average daily molten iron production in August will be between 2.37 and 2.4 million tons [64]. - Inventory: Port inventories decreased slightly, and downstream enterprises replenished stocks passively. As of August 1, the 47 - port iron ore inventory decreased by 1.74 million tons month - on - month [70]. - Shipping: Shipping prices increased significantly [76]. - Spread: There was no trading space for the futures spread, but attention should be paid to the arbitrage opportunity of shorting the coke - ore ratio 01 contract [3]. - Summary: In July, supply tightened while demand remained high, and the fundamentals were strong. Later, affected by the weakening industrial logic, ore prices declined from their highs. Considering the short window period for short - selling and the more certain weakening of finished products, short - selling iron ore is not recommended for now. Instead, pay attention to the operation of shorting coke and going long on iron ore [3]. Strategies - For steel, continue to hold the short positions recommended in the weekly strategy and watch for opportunities to add positions on rebounds [3]. - For iron ore, pay attention to the operation of shorting coke and going long on iron ore and the arbitrage opportunity of shorting the coke - ore ratio 01 contract [3]