Group 1: Report Overview - Report Name: Coal Daily Report (August 4, 2025) [3] - Report Type: Energy and Chemical Research Report, Commodity Research [1][2] Group 2: Market Review - Spot Market: On August 4, the coal market in port areas showed a strong trend, with a tight supply - demand structure. Different calorific - value coal prices were provided for various regions such as ports, Inner Mongolia, Yulin, Shanxi, and Jiangnei ports [4]. Group 3: Important Information - Electricity Consumption: In June, the total social electricity consumption was 867 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 5.4%. The first, second, third industries and urban and rural residents' electricity consumption all had different growth rates. In the first half of the year, the cumulative total social electricity consumption was 4841.8 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 3.7% [5]. Group 4: Logic Analysis Supply - Domestic Supply: Due to continuous rainfall in the northwest, the coal mine operating rates in major coal - producing areas of Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia dropped significantly. As of August 2, the operating rates in Ordos and Yulin were 66% and 41% respectively, and the daily coal output in the two cities dropped to over 3.2 million tons, tightening the overall domestic supply [6]. - Import: The prices of different calorific - value coal were given, with 5500 - kcal coal at 500 - 550 yuan/ton, 5000 - kcal coal at 440 - 490 yuan/ton, and 4500 - kcal coal at 380 - 430 yuan/ton [6]. Demand - Power Plants: Affected by heavy rain, the load of some power plants decreased, and the inventory was at a medium level. Power plants mainly purchased long - term contracts, and due to the "buy - on - rising" psychology, they bought a small amount of market coal to supplement inventory. - Non - power Sectors: The cement operating rate was low, while the restart of methanol and urea maintenance devices led to a high operating rate, and the overall demand for chemical coal was okay, providing stable support for coal prices in the pit - mouth area [6]. Inventory - Port Inventory: Affected by rainfall in the northwest, the daily average volume of the Datong - Qinhuangdao Railway was 1 million tons, and the approved car numbers of the Hohhot Railway Bureau were around 15 trains. With high out - flow, the port inventory continued to decline. As of August 4, the inventory in the Bohai Rim ports dropped to 23.4 million tons, a decrease of 8 million tons from the high level [6]. - Power Plant Inventory: The daily consumption of coastal power plants increased seasonally, and the inventory decreased. The inventory of inland power plants was still high [6]. Overall Outlook - In early August, the coal production in major producing areas was restricted, the operating rates in Ordos and Yulin dropped significantly, and the supply tightened. With the continuous high - temperature weather across the country, the daily consumption of power plants will continue to increase seasonally. It is expected that coal prices will continue to rise strongly in the short term [6]. Group 5: Related Charts - Multiple charts were provided, showing the inventory and consumption data of different types of ports and power plants from 2022 to 2025, including national ports, Bohai Rim ports, downstream ports, etc. [10][14]
银河期货煤炭日报-20250804
Yin He Qi Huo·2025-08-04 13:24