银河期货甲醇日报-20250804

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core View of the Report - The report suggests that with the supply of methanol increasing, shorting on rallies is the main strategy. Although coal prices have rebounded slightly during the peak coal - demand season, domestic methanol supply remains abundant due to high - level stable coal - to - methanol profits and increased methanol production after the autumn maintenance. Meanwhile, imports are recovering, and port inventories are accumulating as arrivals increase. Despite stable downstream demand, the overall situation favors a bearish outlook on methanol [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Review - In the futures market, the futures price fluctuated weakly, closing at 2390 (-13/-0.54%). In the spot market, prices varied by region. For example, in production areas, Inner Mongolia南线 was priced at 2080 yuan/ton, and Inner Mongolia北线 at 2060 yuan/ton. In consumption areas, the price in Lunan was 2300 yuan/ton, and in Lubei was 2310 yuan/ton. At ports, the price in Taicang was 2360 yuan/ton [4]. Important Information - In the current cycle (20250726 - 20250801), the international (ex - China) methanol output was 1030453 tons, an increase of 8500 tons from the previous week, and the device capacity utilization rate was 70.64%, an increase of 0.58% from the previous week [5]. Logic Analysis - Supply: Coal - mining rates in the main coal - producing areas in the northwest have dropped significantly, but coal prices have rebounded due to stable demand. The methanol auction prices of mainstream enterprises in the northwest are firm, and coal - to - methanol profits are around 650 yuan/ton. The domestic methanol supply is continuously abundant as the methanol operating rate remains high and stable. In terms of imports, the international methanol device operating rate has continued to rise, the US - dollar price has fallen slightly, and imports have returned to a positive spread. Iranian devices have gradually increased their loads, non - Iranian devices are operating stably, and the external - market operating rate has reached a new high this year [6]. - Demand: Traditional downstream industries have entered the off - season, with a decline in the operating rate. However, the operating rate of MTO devices has increased, but some MTO devices are not operating at full capacity [6]. - Inventory: Port inventories are accumulating due to increased imports, and the basis is firm. The inventory of inland enterprises has shown a narrow - range fluctuation [6]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Short on rallies, do not chase short positions [7]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [7]. - Options: Sell call options [10].