聚酯链日报：成本支撑弱化叠加供需转弱，聚酯产业链延续承压-20250804

1. Investment Rating of the Reported Industry No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The polyester industry chain continues to face pressure due to weakened cost support and a shift in supply - demand dynamics [1] - The current polyester industry chain is under triple pressure of loose supply, weakening demand, and high inventory, and the price center of the industry chain is expected to remain under pressure in the short term [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Market Summary 3.1.1 PTA & PX - Prices: On August 1st, the PX主力合约 closed at 6,812.0 yuan/ton, down 1.67% from the previous trading day, with a basis of 126.0 yuan/ton. The PTA主力合约 closed at 4,744.0 yuan/ton, down 1.33% from the previous trading day, with a basis of 86.0 yuan/ton. The Brent crude oil主力合约 closed at 71.78 US dollars/barrel, and WTI closed at 69.36 US dollars/barrel [2] - Supply: The cost center of the PX link is suppressed by the weakening of crude oil. The continuous low processing fee may lead to the expectation of a reduction in the load of some devices. The centralized maintenance of large - scale PTA plants has gradually ended, and the high processing fee drives the operating rate to remain high, and the supply - side pressure has increased marginally [2] - Demand: The single - day trading volume of Light Textile City has reached a new high this year, but the sustainability of terminal orders is questionable. After the seasonal restocking ends, it may return to a sluggish state. The polyester operating rate remains at a high level of 89%, but the low cash flow and high finished - product inventory form a negative feedback, and attention should be paid to the negative impact of subsequent production cuts on the PTA demand side. Under the overseas clothing destocking cycle, the incremental momentum of export orders is insufficient [3] - Inventory: PTA factory inventories have been destocked to a medium - low level in history for three consecutive weeks, but the restart of devices in August and the narrowing of the export window will reverse the inventory trend. The explicit inventory in the PX link is at a low level, but the implicit storage capacity is under pressure. The high PTA processing fee stimulates the risk of the implicit inventory becoming explicit. It is expected to gradually enter the inventory accumulation cycle after mid - August [3] 3.1.2 Polyester - Prices: On August 1st, the short - fiber主力合约 closed at 6,382.0 yuan/ton, down 1.27% from the previous trading day. The spot price in the East China market was 6,530.0 yuan/ton, down 65.0 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a basis of 148.0 yuan/ton [4] - Supply - demand - inventory situation: The PX and PTA futures prices have continued to decline, indicating weakened upstream cost support. The terminal textile demand has weakened marginally. The inventory of polyester products is significantly higher than the five - year average, and the entire industry chain is under the triple pressure of loose supply, weakening demand, and high inventory. It is expected that the price center of the industry chain will remain under pressure in the short term [4] 3.2 Industry Chain Price Monitoring - PX: The主力 contract price, trading volume, and open interest of PX futures all decreased on August 1st compared with July 31st. The Chinese main port CFR price of PX spot remained unchanged, while the South Korean FOB price decreased. The PX basis increased significantly [5] - PTA: The主力 contract price, trading volume, and open interest of PTA futures all declined. The Chinese main port CFR price of PTA spot remained unchanged. The PTA basis, 1 - 5 spread, 9 - 1 spread decreased, while the 5 - 9 spread increased. The PTA import profit decreased [5] - Short - fiber: The主力 contract price, trading volume, and open interest of short - fiber futures all decreased. The spot price in the East China market decreased, and the PF basis increased. The PF 1 - 5 spread and 9 - 1 spread decreased, while the PF 5 - 9 spread increased [5] - Other products: The prices of Brent crude oil, US crude oil, and ethylene glycol decreased slightly, while the prices of CFR Japan naphtha, polyester chips, polyester bottle chips, polyester POY, polyester DTY, and polyester FDY remained unchanged or decreased slightly. The processing spreads of most products changed to varying degrees, and the trading volume of Light Textile City increased [5][6] 3.3 Industry Dynamics and Interpretation 3.3.1 Macroeconomic Dynamics - On August 1st, the annual rate of the US core PCE inflation unexpectedly rebounded to 2.8%, and consumer spending was almost stagnant. The US Treasury Secretary expected to announce the nomination for the Federal Reserve before the end of the year. The Japanese central bank maintained the interest rate at 0.5% and raised the inflation forecast. The total value of global gold demand in the second quarter soared to a new record of 132 billion US dollars [7] - On July 31st, the Federal Reserve kept the interest rate unchanged at 4.25% - 4.50%, but two directors voted against it and advocated for a rate cut. The market's bet on the Federal Reserve's annual rate cut decreased by 8BP to 36BP. The US economic growth in the second quarter exceeded expectations [7][8] 3.3.2 Supply - demand - demand aspect - On August 1st, the total trading volume of Light Textile City was 593.0 million meters, a month - on - month increase of 8.21%, with the trading volume of long - fiber fabrics at 468.0 million meters and that of short - fiber fabrics at 127.0 million meters [9] 3.4 Appendix - The supply side of PX may see a decrease in device load due to low processing fees, while the PTA operating rate is high, maintaining sufficient supply. The demand side has short - term support, but its sustainability needs attention. The inventory side may shift from low inventory to inventory accumulation, and future prices may fluctuate or weaken [36][37]